Chinese TV Series Lauds Israel: The Alliance Between China and Zionism

[maz]

Chinese TV Series Lauds Israel: The Alliance Between China and Zionism

The Zionist state's relationship with China is something that has come to public attention with a new Chinese documentary on Israel, although the relationship between Communist China and Israel is of long and strategic duration.

Walk into Israel – the Land of Milk and Honey has been produced by China's national TV channels in co-operation with Israel state authorities. The title should be a giveaway as to the nature of the series: one of the sustaining myths of Israel is that the superior Jewish settlers made Palestine flourish where once it was just sand occupied by a pack of rag-heads; never mind that Palestine was, before being blessed by the presence Irgun, Haganah, Palmach and Stern, a land of plenty.

The People's Daily reports of the event launching the series:

An event to mark the launch of the TV documentary series "Walk into Israel – The Land of Milk and Honey," the first comprehensive TV series about the Jewish civilization and the State of Israel produced by CCTV, was held at the National Center for the Performing Arts in Beijing on July 29.

"The TV documentary series 'Walk into Israel – The Land of Milk and Honey' is the most important TV series ever produced in China about Israel and the Jewish People, and it offers the viewer an historical, comprehensive and systematic introduction to the Jewish civilization and Israel," said Guy Kivetz, Director of Communications and Public Diplomacy at the Embassy of Israel in Beijing.

"Through this amazing program, which explores and unveils the wonders of the State of Israel and the contributions of the Jewish Civilization to the world, we are now able to present the real and bountiful Israel to the Chinese public. We are sure that this program will enhance the understanding of Israel in China and will therefore further promote friendly relations between the two peoples," he said.

Amos Nadai, Ambassador of Israel to China, delivered a speech during the launching event.

He said "Israel and China are two great civilizations known for their contributions to mankind and two modern states that share a rich history and many modern challenges. After watching the TV series, people may have a better understanding of the history and development of the 4000-year-old Jewish civilization as well as the rapid development of the modern State of Israel. This series has the potential to enhance mutual understanding and traditional friendship between Chinese and Jewish nations, promote cooperation between the two peoples and jointly build a better future for all."

Around 450 people, including CCTV Vice President Gao Feng and foreign diplomats were present at the event. The 12-episode HD TV series is now being broadcasted by the CCTV-2 and will be broadcast by CCTV's other leading channels in the future.[1]

[kolnidre]

This is the parasite mentally fattening up the new host. I'm sure similar efforts are underway in India.

The Chinese should be made aware of the wonderful contributions of Jewish civilization and the state of Israel, such as:
-The opium trade and subsequent wars
-Usury
-The Communist revolutions and related massacres, devastation, starvation, murder, endless political campaigns, and replacement of family with the state
-Pornography
-"The Bomb"
-Moral relativism
-False flag terrorism

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

Looks like the Parasite is active... still another example... small time Chinese lady makes it big with Jew Money and Jew connections:

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China's Billionaire Builder

By William Mellor - Aug 11, 2010

Bloomberg Markets Magazine
Zhang Xin is betting hundreds of millions of dollars that the warnings of a housing crash are wrong. The former sweatshop worker has a track record of being right.

From her leafy, 11th-floor rooftop terrace at the headquarters of Soho China Ltd., billionaire Zhang Xin scans the relentlessly expanding Beijing skyline she helped create. Zhang's avant-garde buildings -- some sleek as chopsticks, others stepped like rice terraces -- became part of the hottest real estate market on Earth in 2010.

Zhang says she's well aware of the chorus of investors and economists who predict that China's property boom is about to go bust, taking the global economy down with it. The doomsday scenarios don't intimidate Zhang, a onetime penniless sweatshop worker who ascended to Wall Street by defying the odds. She hopes to prove skeptics wrong again this year by betting hundreds of millions of dollars on new buildings in Beijing and Shanghai, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its September issue.

"I don't see any bubbles," says Zhang, dressed in a white V-neck zippered top, black slacks and red heels. "The next few months will be a fantastic time to buy."

Zhang, 44, personifies the explosive rise of China, from the poverty of Mao Zedong's communist rule to the riches of state-controlled capitalism in the world's third-biggest economy. At age 30, armed with a master's degree from the University of Cambridge in England and connections from working at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York and Hong Kong, Zhang founded Soho China with her husband, Pan Shiyi. The company became central Beijing's biggest developer about a decade later in 2005 -- and a favorite among investors.

Soho China's Shares

Soho China's shares jumped about 17 percent on the Hong Kong stock exchange this year through Aug. 3 compared with a 6.1 percent fall in the Bloomberg Asia Pacific Real Estate Index, which includes 191 property stocks. Zhang's ownership stake is worth about $2.2 billion, ranking her alongside Oprah Winfrey as one of the world's wealthiest self-made women, says Rupert Hoogewerf, whose Shanghai-based Hurun Report tracks China's rich.

Zhang, who rode the wave of China's three-decade expansion, now faces a real estate market that's due for a crash, says Andy Xie, formerly Morgan Stanley's Asia-Pacific chief economist, who now works independently in Shanghai. Economists began predicting a real estate bubble in China last year after its government pumped $585 billion of stimulus funds into the economy. State- controlled banks went on a record $1.4 trillion lending spree in 2009.

See-Through Buildings

That sent residential real estate prices soaring 68 percent in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2009, pushing mainland China past Hong Kong as the world's fastest-appreciating housing market, says London-based property adviser Knight Frank LLP. Beijing's skyline has shot up along with prices, leaving it with many unoccupied see-through buildings. In the central business district, 37.5 percent of office space was vacant in the second quarter, according to Chicago-based property advisory firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc.

"This is a serious bubble," Xie says. "The alarm bells are ringing."

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and co- author of "This Time Is Different," (Princeton University Press, 2009), a book that examines financial crises during the past 800 years, already sees signs of turmoil in China's housing market.

"Property prices are starting to collapse," he says.

Barclays Capital and Standard Chartered Plc analysts forecast a falloff of as much as 30 percent in China's big cities in the second half of 2010 compared with those of mid- April.

Double-Dip Recession

If China's real estate takes a dive, so will its economy, analysts say. Property investment and related industries make up about 20 percent of the country's gross domestic product, Citigroup Inc. research shows. The economy, which expanded 10.3 percent in the second quarter, may slow to 5 percent in the third period if housing plummets, says Jim Walker, chief economist at Hong Kong-based Asianomics Ltd.

The slowdown would reverberate throughout Asia and beyond, especially to countries that supply iron ore and other commodities that have fueled China's boom.

"Commodity suppliers such as Australia and Brazil will be hard hit," Walker says. "They are incredibly China dependent. It could result in the double-dip recession people are talking about."

China's economic rulers moved earlier this year to engineer a soft landing. In April, China's cabinet, led by Premier Wen Jiabao, began imposing stringent restrictions on lending to curb speculation, particularly on luxury dwellings.

Housing Soars

Officials raised down-payment requirements and interest rates on housing purchases, boosted the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve and, in Beijing, banned families from buying more than one new home.

The measures cooled the economy after it grew at a sizzling 11.9 percent pace in the first quarter. Housing prices, which jumped a record 12.8 percent in April, eased to 11 percent in June.

While Zhang says government managers will prevent a crash, she would prefer they let the market dictate demand. Unlike most of her rich Chinese peers, who keep a low profile to stay on good terms with officials, Zhang has been very public in her criticism of government policies.

"The market should be making the decision to buy or not to buy, not be told by the government," says Zhang, who lives with her husband and two sons, ages 10 and 12, in a 32nd-floor penthouse in her Jianwai Soho development in Beijing. "The government is very sensitive to public opinion and that's why people like us have the responsibility to talk honestly about what is happening. That would hopefully help to get the truth to the decision makers."

Rupert Murdoch

The English-speaking Zhang, who regularly appears in Beijing's society magazines, brings a Western style to the way she does business. During the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing, Zhang and Pan entertained fellow billionaire Rupert Murdoch and his wife, China native Wendi Deng, at a celebrity party -- attended by bankers, movie stars and the media -- at a resort they built with the help of 12 architects next to the Great Wall of China. An inveterate blogger and user of a Twitter-like service, Zhang, who calls herself a soccer mom, praised Spain's "perfect" defense in a post following its World Cup victory in July.

Fiberglass Pigs

Zhang's company headquarters in the Chaowai Soho building looks like a Silicon Valley tech firm. Casually dressed engineers, architects and salespeople bounce around ideas in a communal coffee bar decorated with a sculptured herd of life- size fiberglass pigs.

"Many Chinese companies are run like military camps with military discipline," Zhang says. "We do not run a company that way. It does not help the creative process."

Pan, 46, the slim, balding and bespectacled chairman of Soho China, says his wife's relaxed management style only goes so far. Zhang, the chief executive officer of Soho China, enforces its corporate culture with the determination of a Communist Party cadre, Pan said through a spokesman in an e- mail.

"Zhang Xin's personality, value system and educational background are just like our own personal Central Commission for Discipline Inspection," Pan jokes. He wasn't available to be interviewed in person.

Natural Experimentalist

In hiring noted architects from around the world, Zhang has pushed the boundaries of design in Beijing. Kengo Kuma of Japan, who designed the Osaka headquarters of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, created Sanlitun Soho, a development of nine office and apartment buildings shaped like ocean waves. It opened in June.

"She is a natural experimentalist, simultaneously setting and defying trends," Pan says.

Zhang and Pan develop buildings for Chinese much like themselves: entrepreneurs. Many of their rivals put up conventional offices, to be leased mainly to multinational tenants, or grandiose villas and luxury apartments with swimming pools for China's superrich. The duo conveyed their more practical side with the name Soho, which stands for small office, home office.

The company says it has developed 2.3 million square meters (24.8 million square feet) of real estate -- including about a fifth of Beijing's central business district. Soho China's early projects were multiuse, designed for living, working or both. Buyers of Zhang's high-end units, which can cost more than 60,000 yuan ($8,860) a square meter, include coal mine owners and exporters. In the second quarter, 92 percent of Soho China's buildings were occupied, Zhang says. Profit surged last year more than eightfold to 3.3 billion yuan.

Zhang Expands

"They focus on sectors which hold long-term promise," says Mark Mobius, Singapore-based executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., which is Soho China's largest institutional investor, with a 4 percent stake, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. "They have high sensitivity and a great sense of style."

Zhang is now expanding her empire again, dismissing the China bears. In June, she paid 2.25 billion yuan for a 22,500- square-meter plot of vacant land on the Bund, Shanghai's stately colonial-era waterfront strip, where buildings resemble those of 19th-century Europe. Two weeks later in Beijing, she started marketing a futuristic 485,000-square-meter commercial, retail and entertainment complex that's shaped like interlinked cocoons. It will be designed by London-based Pritzker Prize- winning architect Zaha Hadid.

Agricultural Bank

Many investors don't share Zhang's optimism about the housing market. On July 16, the Agricultural Bank of China debuted on the Hong Kong stock exchange, rising 2.2 percent to 3.20 Hong Kong dollars. Analysts and fund managers surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a first-day gain of 5 percent, according to the average of seven estimates. On Aug.3, the stock closed at 3.51 Hong Kong dollars, a rise of 9.7 percent.

Agricultural Bank made 1 trillion yuan of mortgage and other loans last year, and its rate of nonperforming credits at the end of 2009 was 2.91 percent -- almost double that of China's three other largest state-run banks.

As housing prices fall, bad loans will surge and hurt the state-owned banks, says Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University. "I would stay clear of property developers and banks," says Marc Faber, who oversees $300 million at his own firm and has managed money in Hong Kong for the past 37 years.

Cultural Revolution

Zhang, who was born in 1965 as China was about to plunge into the chaos of the Cultural Revolution, is an unlikely billionaire. Her parents, who were both translators at Beijing's Bureau of Foreign Languages, separated during Mao's crackdown. As part of the Communist Party's forced exodus of intellectuals to work in the countryside, Zhang and her mother ended up in a rural part of Henan province.

In 1979, they found their way to Hong Kong and lived in a single room just big enough for two bunk beds. They shared a bathroom with other families.

For five years, from age 14, Zhang toiled in small factories making sleeves, collars, zippers and electrical parts. She says conditions there were similar to those in mainland China today. At Taiwanese-owned Foxconn Technology Group, which makes Apple Inc. iPhones in Guangdong province, at least 10 of its workers committed suicide in recent months, according to China's official media. Foxconn employees work a massive amount of overtime to make a living wage and grow extremely exhausted, Li Qiang, executive director of New York-based China Labor Watch, said in a statement in May.

Cambridge University

"My life then was exactly the same as those factory workers," Zhang says. "It was mindless work. You basically moved from one factory to another for whoever paid you slightly more."

By age 19, she had saved the equivalent of a few thousand British pounds -- enough to buy an airplane ticket to London and support herself while she studied English at secretarial school.

"Quickly, after I landed in England, I found out ways to get scholarships," she says. "England turned out to be a very encouraging place for me."

She won a spot at the University of Sussex, where she earned her undergraduate degree in economics in 1991. Then she enrolled at Cambridge and graduated in 1992 with a master's in development economics.

Goldman Sachs

Barings Plc, a London-based investment bank, hired Zhang right out of Cambridge to work in Hong Kong analyzing privatization in China. Soon after starting the job, she switched to Goldman Sachs, serving as an analyst at the investment bank. It was a short stay. In 1994, she joined Travelers Group Inc. Homesick, she returned to China a year later.

Zhang told the New Yorker magazine in 2005 that she had detested investment banking.

"On Wall Street, all values seemed upside down," she said. "People spoke crassly, treated each other badly, looked down on the poor and adored the rich." She said investment banking reminded her of her days working in the Hong Kong garment factories. "The difference is, in Hong Kong the competition turned people into shortsighted mice, whereas on Wall Street it turns them into wolves and tigers," she said.

Zhang stepped back into China in 1995 as the economy was moving away from orthodox Marxism. As early as 1978, China's leader, Deng Xiaoping, had begun to open markets, declaring: "To get rich is glorious." Beijing, famous for its exquisite 600-year-old Forbidden City flanked by stolid Soviet-style architecture, was beginning to sprout modern buildings. Workers were flocking to the capital as China's economy surged at the rate of 10 percent a year. A friend of Zhang's recommended that she contact Beijing Vantone Real Estate Co., where Pan served as a partner.

Hawaii of China

Like Zhang, Pan was self-made. His grandfather, a supporter of Mao's rival, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, had fought on the losing side in the civil war that ended in 1949, Zhang says. The family had been persecuted for it and forced to eke out a living as peasants in impoverished northwestern Gansu province.

"If I grew up with nothing, they grew up with even less," Zhang says.

After getting a college diploma and working in the petroleum ministry, Pan in 1989 headed south to the tropical island of Hainan, then a freewheeling frontier about to be reshaped as the Hawaii of China. There, Pan learned the real estate business before returning with his partners to seek opportunities in Beijing, Zhang says.

Tiananmen Square

Within four days of meeting Zhang, Pan proposed. Soon after their marriage, he left Vantone and the newlyweds teamed up to form a company called Hongshi (red stone), later renamed Soho China. Zhang would use her experience in investment banking to attract foreign investors and architects; Pan had local knowledge and connections to negotiate with the government to acquire the land.

"It was the initial attraction in us being partners in business as well as partners in life," Zhang says.

Zhang and Pan were setting up their company in 1995 as the local government in Beijing was developing a 4-square-kilometer central business district beyond the eastern end of the Avenue of Eternal Peace. The development was about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from Tiananmen Square, where the army had killed pro- democracy demonstrators six years earlier. The couple correctly gambled that the government would soon allow citizens to get home loans, and that a class of entrepreneurs would emerge to buy their live-work units.

Asian Crisis

For their first project, Pan and Zhang planned to turn a malodorous old Chinese liquor factory into Soho New Town: 10 brightly colored buildings from 12 to 40 stories high and accommodating 8,000 residents and hundreds of small businesses.

"Neither of us was financially established," Zhang says. "But the good thing about having no experience is that you have no fear."

As construction was about to begin in 1997, the Asian financial crisis struck. Beginning in then-debt-ridden Thailand when the government was forced to abandon its currency peg to the U.S. dollar, the contagion spread across the region, sending currencies other than the nonconvertible yuan plunging.

Investors outside of China who had promised to back the project suddenly couldn't or wouldn't come up with the funds. Pan turned to local investors to save Soho New Town, and the development sold out even before completion in 2001. Rather than trying to sell or lease entire buildings, Zhang and Pan peddled units to individual purchasers, a practice they still use today to reduce the risk of whole buildings sitting vacant.

Management Disputes

As China's global aspirations grew, so did Zhang's. By the early 2000s, China's economy was rapidly overtaking those of the U.K. and Germany. Beijing had been chosen to host the 2008 Olympics, accelerating the government's plans to develop the equivalent of three Manhattans in the central business district.

On the site of an old machine-tool factory, Zhang and Pan began in 2002 to put up Jianwai Soho, a 683,000-square-meter complex of 24 white, cubic buildings of varying heights designed by a Japanese architect, Riken Yamamoto. The project was so large that it took five years to complete and exposed a weakness in Soho China's business model, says Jack Rodman, president of Shanghai-based Global Distressed Solutions LLC.

After selling the apartments, offices and shops in their developments, Pan and Zhang turned over control to independent management companies. At Jianwai Soho, disputes over management fees and quality of service broke out between owners and property managers -- tensions that continue to flare today. Some of the buildings are now in need of repair.

2007 IPO

Zhang says the management breakdowns hurt the reputation of Soho China, which is taking back control of all but one of its developments.

"Earlier, we said, 'This is not our problem; why should we manage them?'" she says. "Then we realized they have our names on the buildings."

Zhang in 2007 persuaded Pan to take the company public in Hong Kong and cash in. The timing of the initial public offering on October 8, 2007, was exquisite. Less than a month later, global markets began to tumble in the early days of the credit crisis. They raised $1.9 billion -- the biggest IPO by a property company in Hong Kong that year.

Soho China shares traded at HK$4.92 on Aug. 3, 40 percent below the offering price. After plummeting along with the rest of the stock markets during the financial meltdown, Soho China's stock outperformed the Hong Kong and Asia Pacific property indexes almost twofold since it hit bottom in October 2008 through Aug. 3.

Wall Street Wolves

The IPO, which was underwritten by Goldman Sachs, HSBC Holdings Plc and UBS AG, marked a change in Zhang's relationship with Wall Street. Only two years earlier, she had publicly lambasted investment bankers as wolves. Today, Zhang is more circumspect when asked about her Wall Street experiences.

"I had better be careful these days," she says. "I am their client. I work with them very closely."

Today, the Soho name appears on 14 developments in Beijing, a city of 22 million people. In August 2009, Zhang and Pan made their first move into Shanghai with their purchase from Morgan Stanley of the Exchange, a 50-story office building on Nanjing Road, Shanghai's main shopping street.

Now called the Exchange-Soho, the development is a prime example of the real estate bubble in China, economist Xie says. Soho China paid Morgan Stanley 2.45 billion yuan for the building -- the equivalent of 34,000 yuan per square meter. In the first quarter of 2010, Zhang says, she was selling office space in the building for an average 61,500 yuan per square meter, almost doubling her money. That works out to $843 per square foot -- more than twice the $381 per square foot that HSBC made when it sold its New York headquarters on Fifth Ave. in October.

Feared a Bubble

"Chinese property prices are 100 percent higher than can be justified," Xie says.

Zhang, who early this year feared a bubble, now says her own research reveals that the property market is regaining its sanity. She says real estate prices have been cooling since April, following the government's lending restrictions, but aren't headed for a collapse.

"We know from our own experience the prices are staying flat," she says.

Stephen Roach, Asia chairman of Morgan Stanley, agrees with Zhang. China's property bubble is confined to luxury properties, he says. Roach says the lending curbs are successfully deflating high-end speculators in the top 10 cities, which collectively account for just six percent of the total market.

"It's a micro bubble, not a macro bubble," he says.

Slower Growth

Roach says the drop in the high-end market will slow economic growth, which he estimates will fall to between 8 percent and 9 percent by the end of the year.

"This would be a much more sustainable growth rate for China -- especially in light of the recent uptick in inflation," he says. Inflation reached 3.1 percent in May, the fastest growth in 19 months, before falling back to 2.9 percent in June.

To stabilize the housing market, China needs to build more affordable dwellings to be sold to the 500 million Chinese whose income has been rising for a decade, says Donald Straszheim, Los Angeles-based senior managing director and head of China research at ISI Group, a firm that advises institutional investors. He says the government should put together a long- term program to increase construction of low- and middle-income housing.

Zhang's Forecast

"If they don't, the massive number of people getting richer each year will continue to bid up house prices and frustrate Beijing," Straszheim says. "When the government takes the lid off lending, house prices are going to go back up again. That's a persistent boom-bust cycle."

Zhang says success in real estate has come down to guessing what the government will do next. In June, she gave her prediction at a JPMorgan Chase & Co. conference attended by almost 2,000 foreign investors in Beijing.

"Everyone was so pessimistic, and I was saying that in the next six months or a year, prices will go up again," she says. "My guess is that it is austerity now, but at some point it will become stimulus again."

If the former sweatshop worker is right, her latest property investments will likely prosper -- as will China, perhaps sparing the global economy the threat of a double-dip recession.

William Mellor is a senior writer for Bloomberg Markets in Sydney at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/201 ... ilder.html

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

(Jew) Bill Gross Takes Backseat to Real Big Money (after the Jewish Destruction of Western Economies by mostly Jew Scams)

By William Pesek - Aug 22, 2010 3:00 PM ET



Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Mohammed El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., discusses Federal Reserve monetary policy. El-Erian, speaking with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance," also discusses deflation and the outlook for the U.S. economy. (This report is an excerpt of the full interview. Source: Bloomberg)

Reading Bill Gross's latest musings makes one nostalgic for the days when words from big bond-fund managers actually mattered.

We in the media like to point out that Gross runs the biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. He did, until China created a portfolio of sorts totaling $2.5 trillion. As the assets of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, grow, it's making Pimco's $239 billion Total Return Fund look like chump change.

It's a SAFE world; we just live in it. Expect SAFE's mushrooming influence to create new jobs around the globe. Remember the Federal Reserve watchers who got so much ink in the 1980s and 1990s? Welcome to the world of the SAFE watcher.

Cracking the thinking inside the world's biggest bond portfolio isn't easy. How, when and where China invests its vast savings is a closely held state secret. And global markets will never be the same as debt-sellers bypass the likes of Gross and go right to the source: China.

It's the latest unintended side effect of China's embarrassment of riches. The first was creating a monster China can scarcely control. It must continually add to its reserves, or diversify them smartly, lest billions of dollars of state money be lost. In a sense, China is trapped, making its currency collection more a weakness than a strength.

China's Support

The newest wrinkle is how governments in Asia and elsewhere are clamoring for China's support. Japan, for example, has been gleefully announcing Chinese purchases of its bonds. Traders in Seoul were cheered by news that China more than doubled its South Korean debt holdings this year.

Last week, the Malaysian ringgit was added to a small group of currencies that can be traded directly against the yuan. An incremental step, yes, but one that could accelerate China's reserve diversification process.

You can't blame China. As of June, it was stuck with $844 billion of dollar assets at a time when the Fed is on the hot seat to pump even more liquidity into the U.S. economy.

Global debt markets are hanging in the balance as China shifts its wealth around. The advantage here goes to those nations that built the deepest bond markets over the past decade. The last thing China wants is money locked up in a market it can't exit if things go awry in the global economy.

A Good Thing?

Is this arrangement really a good thing? The rise of state capitalism, driven largely by sovereign wealth funds, has been widely expected and explored. Yet the amount of bond-market power being concentrated in Beijing raises questions about where the nature of markets is heading.

If I were a recent college graduate in Beijing I'd be scrambling to open a road-show business. It's not hard to envision a future in which Indonesian and Vietnamese debt issuers bypass New York, London and Tokyo and head right to Beijing -- where the real deep pockets are.

By managing a multi-trillion-dollar portfolio, China is at ground zero of a kind of nationalization beyond borders.

Admittedly, it's been a disorienting few years for enthusiasts of laissez-faire capitalism. It was quite a novelty to see Wall Street giants, entities that long abhorred government involvement, lining up for bailouts.

Unproductive Practice

Now we're faced with governments amassing ever-growing piles of currencies that need to be parked somewhere. Never mind how unproductive a practice this is. China, for example, could be using large chunks of that money to create better social- safety nets or invest in clean energy sources.

Asia's foreign-exchange fetish is short-sighted. It's partly about walling off economies in case global markets crash anew. It's mostly about holding down currencies to keep exports competitive. That delays Asia's process of becoming more about ideas and services than factory jobs.

China's trajectory comes with a few underappreciated risks. One is that its currency stockpile is a bubble all its own. Reducing its reserves would scare markets into a massive selloff, leaving China with huge losses. So, for better or worse, it just keeps adding and adding.

Another is what happens if China hits a wall. While hard to envision today, China could slide into crisis in the next few years. If so, it will need to convert its bond holdings to cash. That unwinding process could hit Asia hard. If Gross is right that the U.S. faces a "new normal" of negligible growth, a double-dip global recession is entirely possible.

China's geopolitical leverage also is worth considering. The U.S. government paid for the massive tax cuts of the early 2000s by borrowing money from China. It's not hard to envision Asian leaders making political decisions based on how they might affect China's support for their debt.

If you're Spain or the Philippines and you are selling debt, you'll care about wooing the Gross's of the world. You will care far more about how bureaucrats in Beijing view your economy. Welcome to the bond market's new normal.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-2 ... pesek.html

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

23 August 2010
CFR: China Poised to Shock the Oil Market And Its Possible Consequences for Hyperinflation

Jesse's Café Américain

I found this paper published by the Council on Foreign Relations to be a plausible argument in favor of the exhaustion of cheap oil, also known as Peak Oil. This growth in Chinese oil consumption into the 'knee of the curve' given its growing per capital income could very well cause an oil shock as the title of the paper suggests. As you may recall it was an oil shock that triggered the stagflation of the 1970's, a black swan event if there ever was one.

The weakness in its logic is assuming that things which happen in one country will necessarily happen in others, based on relatively simple vectors like per capita income. Examples of possible differences are the national infrastructure in roads, deployment of population relative to travel needs and the availability and pricing of public relative to private transportation. Since these are often significantly affected by policy decisions it is sometimes difficult to forecast them accurately.

Notice that China is under running the trends of the comparison countries at current levels. Why would we assume they would start tracking more closely to model once a certain threshold is surpassed? And then there are the growth assumptions for China, which could be optimistic. Extending aggressive trends is sometimes a dangerous forecasting method. It would also have been interesting to see where India fits on this chart.

Most of these factors modulate the timing of the outcome, but not necessarily the outcome itself. So the trend to cheap oil exhaustion remains persuasive; but as we all know, anything can happen, and sometimes it does.

As competition for oil increases it could have interesting effects on currency valuations, inter currency rates, and international relationships.

It was a bit of a coincidence that I had just reread How Hyperinflation Will Happen by Gonzalo Lira. It is a compelling read.

He had asked me to provide some feedback and any possible weakness in his argument, which I did in a comment at his site and in a few email responses.

Here is my edited comment from his site:

Although the scenario of a 'run on Treasuries' is possible as a path to hyperinflation, I do not think it is probable unless there is a significant 'trigger event' to precipitate it. The magnitude of the 'trigger event' required could lessen with time if the US financial situation continues to deteriorate.

    Why do I say this? Because the TBTF banks have no incentive to join in the selling if the Fed stands to defend a price in the market. For JPM and Citi it is likely to be suicide to do so. Even the mighty Goldman is unlikely to buck the system, as it were. The NY Fed not only knows where the bodies are buried, it has helped to bury quite a few of them itself.

    It took a 'Soros' for example to call the Bank of England out in their support for the pound in that famous incident. I see no such party of sufficient size and inclination now to take on the US Treasury and NY Fed in the debt markets.

    I do think a trigger event or incident is possible. I believe it would involve an exogenous party of size, for example China, and an announcement regarding Treasury reserves.

    I also think the Treasury run could be triggered by a precipitous decline in the value of the dollar. Note this implies the Treasury run would start on the shortest end of the curve, Fed notes of zero duration. Then the longer end would follow.

    Very nice description of such an event, and chilling to say the least. But I think we are some distance from this without a substantial 'trigger event.'

And then I picked up this CFR essay which describes something which might fit the criterion of a 'trigger event.' After all, it was the oil embargo which precipitated the stagflation of 1970's. An oil shock could shake an already weakened US dollar as the trade deficit opened into a yawning chasm.

But I do remain convinced that hyperinflation is unlikely simply because the TBTF banks 'have the Fed's back' which is why they were allowed to continue to remain in business, with substantial subsidies, and grow even larger. All it takes to create a money machine is the Federal Reserve of New York and one or two captive Primary Dealer banks. The dodgy backroom deals are probably more abundant than we realize or suspect even now. And I do not even wish to thing of the loathsome creatures that would enjoy taking advantage of a crisis of this magnitude to further promote their oligarchy and a New World Order.

As a reminder, black swan events like market crashes and runs on banks tend to be on the edges of probability. But they can happen, and are more likely to happen at certain times. Therefore it is potentially fatal to assume that things will always remain the same, and that the big trend changes will never occur.

 Council on Foreign Relations
    China Will Force the World Off Oil
    By Paul Swartz
    August 23, 2010

    As a country's per capita income increases, its per capita oil consumption increases. Consumption growth tends to be modest up until $15,000 income per head, but then accelerates rapidly. China is quickly approaching this point. South Korea, which consumes 3% of world oil output, is too small to disrupt oil markets.

    China is too big not to disrupt them. Were China's per capita oil consumption to be brought up to South Korea's, its share of global consumption would increase from today's 10% to over 70%. In order to cap China's share at 22%, which is the U.S. share today, global oil output would have to increase by a massive 13% per annum over ten years – well beyond the 1% growth averaged since 1975.

    This rate of growth is inconceivable, even if vastly more expensive sources of supply, such as the Canadian oil sands, were developed at breakneck speed. If China's recent economic growth pace continues, it will surpass South Korea's current per capita GDP shortly after 2020 – meaning that the world may be forced onto alternative energy sources much sooner than it realizes.

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