Cameron: Britain's referendum on EU membership to be June 23

[MikeWB]

So what does TiU think? Will UK populace vote to exit the EU?



LONDON (AP) -- It's been three years in the making, but a June 23 date has finally been set for the momentous "in or out" British vote on whether to abandon the 28-nation European Union.

Prime Minister David Cameron vowed Saturday to lead the charge to keep Britain part of the EU, winning the backing of most of his Cabinet and support for his "stay in" goal from political heavyweights in rival parties, including the opposition Labour Party and the Scottish National Party.

"I do not love Brussels, I love Britain," Cameron told the nation in front of his 10 Downing Street residence. He went on to say that he has concluded Britain would be safer and stronger remaining in the bloc, and that jobs would be created by maintaining open trading ties with Europe.

He said a landmark deal reached the day before with EU leaders in Brussels would give Britain more control over its future, lessen welfare payments to migrants who come to Britain, and protect Britain from being absorbed into a feared European "superstate."

Cameron said he was making good on a 2013 commitment to give British voters a chance to decide whether to remain in the bloc, which is seen by some Britons as meddlesome, overly bureaucratic, and unable to control its borders.

Britain has always remained somewhat apart from the European project, preferring to keep its own currency rather than adopt the euro and declining to join the passport-free Schengen zone in place in much of Europe.

The June vote will come as the EU struggles to cope with a sustained immigration crisis that last year brought more than 1 million people fleeing war and poverty to its shores.

The referendum battle pits those who believe Britain is better off in a formal union with Germany, France and other countries against those who see Britain as a proud island nation better capable of managing its affairs on its own.

Treasury chief George Osborne and Home Secretary Theresa May, two senior Cabinet officials seen as possible future leaders of Cameron's Conservative Party, voiced support for continued membership Saturday. May said Britain's "protection against crime and terrorism" is enhanced by its role in the EU.

Early polls suggest a close vote is likely, fueled by the anti-EU sentiment that has been a constant issue in British politics for decades as the Brussels-based EU bureaucracy has grown in power and usurped some roles that were formerly in the hands of individual member states.

Much of the opposition to EU membership comes from the UK Independence Party led by Nigel Farage and from skeptical members of Cameron's own party.

The "out" campaign does not yet have a clear leader, although Farage is expected to play a prominent role. He has built his career on opposition to EU membership, but he has been unable to expand his political base and his bid for a seat in Parliament failed in the 2015 election.

London's popular and influential mayor, Boris Johnson, has not yet declared his intentions. Some believe Johnson, a Conservative, is potentially the charismatic leader the "out" side so far lacks.

Justice Secretary Michael Gove on Saturday became the most prominent Cabinet figure to break ranks.

"By leaving the EU we can take control. Indeed, we can show the rest of Europe the way to flourish," he said.

That drew immediate praise from Rupert Murdoch, who controls one of Britain's major television news operations as well as several key newspapers.

"Congratulations Michael Gove," Murdoch tweeted. "Friends always knew his principles would overcome his personal friendships."

The outcome of the referendum is expected to influence whether Scottish political leaders, who strongly favor continued ties with Europe, seek a second referendum on whether to leave the United Kingdom.

A 2014 referendum on that question saw Scottish voters reject independence after Cameron and the leaders of the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats joined forces to convince Scottish voters that breaking away would be too risky.

The upcoming referendum may see a similar dynamic, with Cameron, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon all arguing from different perspectives that EU membership is vital for Britain.

"It's important that the campaign to remain in the EU learns the lessons of Scotland's independence referendum, so that it does not lapse into scaremongering and fear," Sturgeon said, vowing that her party would make a "positive case" for staying in the EU.

Most business leaders also strongly back EU membership because it greatly eases trade with European countries. President Obama has also indicated that the trans-Atlantic alliance is stronger with Britain remaining in the EU.

The deal Cameron agreed upon Friday with 27 other EU leaders protects Britain from taking part in an "ever closer union" with European nations and makes clear that Britain will not adopt the euro currency shared by 19 EU nations. Cameron says it also protects British interests and restricts British welfare payments to migrants from other EU nations.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BRITAIN_EUROPE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-20-07-56-36

[MikeWB]

What if? The uncharted waters of 'Brexit'

London (AFP) - A British exit from the European Union would leave the country in uncharted territory, no country having ever travelled that road, which spells freedom to eurosceptics but doom to the pro-Europe camp.

As Britain gears up for a membership referendum, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker insists there is no plan B, while Downing Street maintains it has made no contingencies.

After securing a deal on Britain's 'special status' in the EU at a summit on Friday, Prime Minister David Cameron said he would campaign for his country to stay in and warned those clamouring for a divorce that a post-EU future might be far from rosy.

"We should be suspicious of those who claim that leaving Europe is some automatic fast track to some land of milk and honey," Cameron said, adding that "Brexit" would be "a leap into the unknown".

A "War Game" held in London last month attempted to simulate post-Brexit negotiations on Britain's place in Europe, but even there discussions quickly turned toxic.

As a first step, Britain and the EU must "negotiate and conclude an agreement... setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal", as required by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

If no agreement is reached after two years, Britain would automatically be ejected from the union, unless both parties agreed to an extension.

At the heart of discussions will be whether Britain remains in the European Economic Area (EEA), like other non-EU members Norway and Iceland, or whether it quits the single market altogether.

The City of London, Europe's most important financial centre, is hostile to a Brexit and its big hitters have already planned for various post-EU scenarios.

HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, has warned that 1,000 jobs could shift from London to Paris.

- Immigration clampdown -

According to a study by the think-tank Open Europe, Britain's GDP would be 2.2 points lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU, in its worst-case scenario, with a loss of 0.8 percent deemed most likely.

Despite Brexit's many unknowns, the government would likely clamp down on immigrants, starting with migrants from Eastern Europe, whom eurosceptics believe are being lured by Britain's welfare system.

Parliament would be able to strike down EU laws written into British law, which currently state that the welfare system must treat workers from other parts of Europe as it does British citizens.

France would have to decide whether to continue to host British border police, or whether it would lift the controls to allow migrants currently stranded in Calais to travel on to England through the Eurotunnel.

Meanwhile, EU citizens already resident in Britain could suddenly find themselves treated as any other foreigner, requiring residence and work permits.

Remaining EU members could respond in kind, leaving Britons on the continent in need of visas and permits.

- Imperial victory -

In the key areas of security and defence, it seems likely that all parties would conclude the need to continue cooperating closely on defence and counter-terrorism.

But a Brexit could leave Britain weakened on the world stage as it loses its role as a gateway to Europe for the United States and China.

Both US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have publicly called for Britain to stay in the EU.

Britain could be further weakened by the prospect of losing Scotland, whose devolved government has signalled it would demand another independence referendum in the event of a Brexit.

The ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) claims that it is being forced out of the EU against its wishes, and believes it would have a stronger chance of winning independence than it did in 2014, when Scotland voted by 55 percent to 45 percent to remain in the United Kingdom.

The consequences would be dire for Prime Minster David Cameron, who would go down in history as the man who empowered the country's eurosceptics to drive Britain out of the EU.

Political commentators are already fantasising about charismatic London mayor Boris Johnson, a die-hard eurosceptic, replacing Cameron should the vote go against the current prime minister.

Another issue that carries weight, literally, among Britain's eurosceptics will also be settled.

The 2009 European regulation imposing the use of the "metric" system will finally be able to be binned, signalling a return to "imperial" measurements and victory for "metric martyr" campaigners.
http://news.yahoo.com/uncharted-waters-brexit-115733952.html