CFR: ISIS and Al Qaeda Could Team Up

[maz]

The Coming ISIS–al Qaeda Merger

Only five years ago, al Qaeda's downfall appeared similarly imminent. Its founder and leader was dead. A succession of key lieutenants had been eliminated. And the region was transformed by the Arab Spring. Civil protest, it seemed, had achieved what terrorism had manifestly failed to deliver—and al Qaeda was the biggest loser. As John O. Brennan, then deputy national security advisor for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and assistant to the president, told an audience gathered at a DC think tank in April 2012, "For the first time since this fight began, we can look ahead and envision a world in which the al Qaeda core is simply no longer relevant." Less than a month later, on the first anniversary of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden's killing, U.S. President Barack Obama proudly proclaimed that, "The goal that I set—to defeat al Qaeda and deny it a chance to rebuild—is now within our reach."

How completely different it all looks today. In February, Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper painted a singularly bleak picture of a newly resurgent al Qaeda alongside an ambitiously expansionist Islamic State (ISIS) in his annual worldwide threat assessment. Al Qaeda and its affiliates, Clapper told the Senate Armed Services Committee, "have proven resilient and are positioned to make gains in 2016.... They will continue to pose a threat to local, regional, and even possibly global interests...." More alarming still was the rise of an even more extreme offshoot. ISIS, he explained, "has become the preeminent terrorist threat because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq, its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world."

If a week is a long time in politics, five years is an eternity. It is easy to forget that, until very recently, there was no Islamic State ruled by ISIS; Abu al-Baghdadi's putative caliphate was nothing more than a self-indulgent reverie. Indeed, the Sykes and Picot boundaries appeared indelible, and both Obama and Vice President Joe Biden were trumpeting the stabilization of democracy in Iraq and the attendant withdrawal of U.S. military forces as proof that "America's war in Iraq" is "over."

Given this concatenation of astonishing developments in so short a period of time, it very likely that more surprises will follow. In fact, by 2021 al Qaeda and ISIS might reunite—or at least have entered into some form of alliance or tactical cooperation. Although admittedly improbable in the near term, such a rapprochement would make a lot of sense for both groups and would no doubt result in a threat that, according to a particularly knowledgeable U.S. intelligence analyst whom I queried about such a possibility, "would be an absolute and unprecedented disaster for [the] USG and our allies."

The United States suffers collective amnesia where terrorism and counterterrorism policy are concerned. After all, it was only recently that the conventional wisdom inside the Beltway was that the bloody split between al Qaeda and ISIS would consume, neuter, and ultimately destroy both groups. The conventional wisdom on al Qaeda has rarely been correct anyway, so it is not surprising that this particular expectation has proved to be little more than wishful thinking. And that is reason enough to explore why an al Qaeda–ISIS merger is not as farfetched as some wishfully contend.

Cont

It's gonna be an evil super Jew team up!

[MikeWB]

They were the same team not so long ago (when alBaghdadi was under AlQ umbrella). Once SAA weakens them both even more, they will have no other options but to team up. Then the CIA will be openly supporting ISIS.