Well-known political strategist: "The pandemic has only a political solution"

[yankeedoodle]

Well-known political strategist: "The pandemic has only a political solution"
https://zavtra.ru/events/izvestnij_polittehnolog_pandemiya_imeet_tol_ko_politicheskoe_reshenie

Gleb Kuznetsov is an experienced political strategist, which means he is a cynic. Well, healthy cynicism in the context of global perturbations is often associated with the concept of "sobriety." While the dumbfounded people, who have suddenly lost their footing, are rushing between fanatical belief in a forced image and destructive ultra-conspiracy (both camps are eventually overtaken by quasi-religious / sectarian exaltation), the cynical political strategist looks at the root. In my own way. Noticing in absolutely everything, in spite of the wrapper, specific technologies. And often it turns out to be right. Or wrong - but his point of view is undoubtedly worth attention.

Kuznetsov is a member of the Russian Association of Political Consultants (which brings together leading Russian political consultants, political scientists and political strategists), since 2010 he has been managing the Petropavlovsk Foundation for the Support of Social-Oriented Projects and Programs (which implements social, historical and educational projects aimed at unlocking the potential of the Far East), until 2020 was a member of the commission for the development of the information community, media and mass communications of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation. Extremely far from the eternal protestors / vsepalschikov, he heads the expert council of the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI; considered the "Kremlin thought factory"; the board of trustees is headed by Boris Gryzlov), one of the founders and member of the board of directors of the EISI.

So, Gleb Sergeevich writes: " History repeats itself endlessly. The first time is a tragedy, the second time is a farce. The third and all subsequent times are because" well, it turned out well. "Omicron-panic in general and in detail in an extremely comical hypertrophied form repeats all the previous "stress attacks", but this does not make it easier for the world. For the hundredth time I repeat, the pandemic has only a political solution . Elites like it so much that they physically cannot stop themselves. Even if, for example, they wanted to . " About a number of "antiquated" measures: " This is not even idiocy, this is some kind of refined inadequacy ." About covid content: "Understanding the transformation of coronavirus content is important. It is reduced in the sense of a variety of topics and breadth, it quotes itself (in fact, this is its logic at the present stage - the proof of the correctness of this or that approach or logic is the fact that it was already done in the pandemic), it is not focused on persuading the disloyal, but exclusively on already loyal people. This is a monologue in front of supporters, in which if there are questions, then only rhetorical, more and more "spherical in a vacuum." There are no doubters about such a dialogue, they are outside the brackets. There is a "canon" on both sides, the enemy's retreat from which allows one to immediately switch to dehumanizing vocabulary . This is characteristic of both the West and us . "

On December 24, a meeting of the Scientific Council of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM; state research organization) took place on the topic: "Social and political results of 2021 and forecasts for 2022". Gleb Kuznetsov presented an interesting report "Strains in 2021 - from Alpha to Omicron - and Their Political and Social Significance" .

Below is Kuznetsov's FB post.

" Abstracts from my speech at the Scientific Council of VTsIOM:" Strains in 2021 - from alpha to omicron - and their political and social significance "

1. Strains or variants are definitely "word of the year" in the pandemic sense.

It should be understood that a virus strain is a purely specific scientific history. They are treated in the same way, there were no specific vaccines and there are no. The strain does not have "new functions" in relation to the "wild variant", the difference is expressed in "more or less". That is, information about the strains is a useless concussion for mass audiences and even for practicing doctors.

2. The popularity of the strains is prepared by the "flu variants" - swine, avian, and so on.

3. The task of the strains is to "prolong the pandemic" and "increase sales" of covid against the background of fatigue and routineization of the pandemic. It's like the days of "national cuisine" at McDonald's. And literally - the "main menu" then includes only that which "sells well".

4. And what sells well is something that has "greater publicity" and "greater market potential". Therefore, the sales of strains go through the tools of the Western press and Western influencers. Brazilians, South Africans, and Indians were amazed at the fame gained by their "national strains". And they tried to attract attention by saying that "everything is not so." But nobody listened to them. Really, it came to ridiculousness both with India and Brazil. When Europe and the United States literally imposed the perception of a pandemic associated with "named strains" in their countries, despite serious resistance. Here it is appropriate to recall the position of South Africa on the omicron - the official denial and protest against the West's measures to isolate South Africa.

5. In the attention of the authorities to a particular strain, it is not its properties (contagiousness, lethality, etc.) that are primary, but the political tasks characteristic of a particular period. The severity of the imposed restrictions also comes from political objectives, and not a real threat, which was especially evident after the identification of the omicron.

6. The media "popularity" of a strain does not last longer than six months, regardless of its properties: delta still remains the dominant strain and retained its transmissibility, but in a few months it lost its novelty as a threat.

7. Properties of strains - vary from country to country. An example of a delta that is not fatal everywhere, but fatal in Russia. Or alpha, which was the most terrible and terrible in the States, which allowed Biden at the entrance to show the perniciousness of Trump's covid strategy and his own "success."

What all strains have in common in all countries are sales-boosting functions. That is, each strain is more "virulent" - it spreads more easily (at times). Affects the young. Poses a threat to children.

The design is the same for everyone: "in previous waves, we did not see such an incidence in ... (hereinafter the name of the social group to which Temka should be sold)". Today's kids and omicron headlines are a copy of the 2020 headlines, "Don't Think Covid Is Safe For Children!"

8. There may be several candidate strains for the role of the "main threat" at the same time, but within a few weeks the Covid-administering community comes to a consensus and begins to jointly promote the idea of ​​the danger of only one of them. News of new strains is useful in terms of keeping audiences feeling as though COVID-19 continues to mutate and continues to pose a threat. But the inconsistency in the actions of the governments, which accept the "new danger" as a guide to restrictive actions, makes it clear to the population that the authorities themselves do not know which threat is a priority. And the busting of strains is increasingly causing a decrease in confidence and irritation.

9. Functions of strains, if we remove country specifics like Brexit in Britain and transit to the USA.

Alpha: returning attention to the pandemic, explaining winter lockdowns in developed countries. And the extension of the restrictions.

Beta and gamma - lost to alpha and did not collect cash. Moreover, they were dominant in some places.

Delta - Providing vaccinations and aggressive coercion.

Delta plus and lambda cash was not collected.

Omicron is the fixation of vaccination as an inevitable repetitive practice. Vaccination of children. And the message that the pandemic will never end.

And most importantly, the strains explain the violation of previous "contracts". "Let's sit in a lockdown and the pandemic will end" (Wild). "The vaccine is on its way - let's sit still, wait and be free" (Alpha). "We will be vaccinated and the pandemic will end" (Delta).

Strains are a "force majeure" that nullifies the responsibility of the elites for non-fulfillment of the previous agreement.

10. Specificity of the omicron:

- the change in the tone of the news - "the first sick omicron died in Britain" - in a pandemic with millions of victims in two years sounds absurd. But the topic of death, which vaccination has "removed" from the world, is returning to the agenda;

- the emergence of a strain-opposition ("live vaccine", "everyone needs to be ill with an omicron")

- radicalization of the authorities' own agenda in response to scientific and street opposition: a request for "catastrophic scenarios" from the authorities and influencers who grew up on covid. A relief for them. Naftali Bennett: "the whole world will follow our example", Europe is returning masks to the streets and lockdowns with 90% vaccination. Scenarios of the next covid disasters are discussed in the media, and the "model builders" openly say that the authorities do not order non-catastrophic scenarios, since they do not require action from the authorities. Biden - curses dividing society against the unvaccinated, "who will face a hard winter full of death."

The public position of the authorities is losing the humanity inherent in the "context of 2020" ("everything will be fine", "one people solves a common problem"). No empathy, only aggression.

Summary. The strength of the action is equal to the strength of the reaction, and it is obvious that the popularity of the omicron wave will be low, and the claims to the authorities are growing more and more. The proposed exit strategy for 2022 - "vaccinate once every three to five months so that there are no horrors of 2020" looks very, very hard to sell to societies. Politically, 2022 is going to be tough, I think . "

Earlier, on December 15, Gleb Kuznetsov took part in the "Right to Health" congress, dedicated to new approaches to the regulation of the health care system, aimed at preserving and increasing human capital as the basis of the country's economy.

"The abstract of my speech at the Right to Health Congress entitled" Healthcare and covid. More money. Less control. More efficiency? "

1. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp increase in funding for the healthcare system in Russia and around the world. At the same time, indicators of the availability of medical care decreased in all countries, including for emergency surgery, which significantly reduced the number of hospitalized patients.

Everywhere reduction of planned operations and manipulations by about 40-50%. A significant reduction in the detection of malignant tumors, and so on (it comes to the point of absurdity - a person in a covid hospital with a mild / moderate course receives 5 CT scans during the hospitalization period, a woman with suspected breast cancer is waiting for CT scan for two months).

2. The pandemic further aggravated the class division according to Marx: those who owned capital multiplied it many times over, those who did not have it were additionally affected in income and rights (both due to wage cuts and due to layoffs for various reasons - from age to public disloyalty state policy in the field of covid). Everywhere in the world, salaries of medical workers, demonstratively increased in the first months of the pandemic, in 2021 not only decreased, but, according to some doctors, fell below the level of 2019. Although the salary is not touched, various allowances and payments are being cut, incl. h. for seniority, categories and harmfulness, which leads to a reduction in income in practice.

There is one trend everywhere. Governments and organizations are cutting salaries and incomes of health care workers either directly or by increasing taxes and deductions. Declining incomes are a bargaining chip in the West: authorities and employers argue that a one-time worsening of the financial situation of workers will serve as a guarantee for the preservation of jobs. Another argument in favor of reducing wages is their higher level compared to other regions / companies in the industry, in this case they are reduced to the industry average or to the same indicators for competitors.

3. Large sums of money are invested in the creation and repeated re-equipment of infrastructure, while practically no attention is paid to additional training and advanced training of doctors. The overwhelming majority of ventilators in the world will never be unpacked, hospitals are being converted into covid hospitals in a circle, and then back for a lot of money. For almost two years, Covid has not turned into a "planned story" (and there are no attempts even), but is a force majeure with endless spending on "surprise". The covid story is already reminiscent of all our jokes about "sudden winter" or "unprecedented rains."

4. Changes in the rules for conducting clinical trials and registration of drugs have significantly reduced the costs of pharmaceutical companies: the duration of CT has been significantly reduced, especially for new types of drugs that were not previously available on the market (for example, mRNA vaccines). If earlier it averaged 10 years, then in 2020 it decreased to 11 months for the first vaccines against COVID-19. The developers refuse to carry out full-fledged CT for certain groups of the population, incl. children, replacing them with short-term additional tests. Applications to national regulators are submitted based on analysis of intermediate data showing high efficiency, however, later results may not confirm these conclusions (example of molnupiravir: if in October 2021 Merck announced 50% efficiency, then at the end of November, more than a month after filing an application with the FDA, they provided additional data for which the effectiveness did not exceed 30%). No pediatric drug in human history has been registered as quickly and easily as childhood covid vaccines. However, the ease of access to the market does not affect prices in any way - moreover, Pfizer constantly argues that from the point of view of "clinical and economic reasons" their vaccine should cost not $ 20, but $ 100 per serving.

5. The perception in society and the media representation of the role of doctors in the fight against COVID-19 has undergone significant changes: if during the first months of the pandemic they were perceived as "heroes fighting a deadly infection on the front line", then later their image was transformed into a kind of a mouthpiece promoting tougher restrictive measures and mandatory vaccinations and trying to "put pressure on authority", having discredited itself before with numerous irrational statements. And the number of people, one way or another, dissatisfied began to go off scale. From the point of view of the elites, this serves two main functions: it helps to reduce social tension and channels it, transferring it from the authorities to the medical workers. We have started new iatrogenic criminal cases or renewed old ones. At the same time, the real situation of health workers is deteriorating.

6. Vaccine, equipment and drugs against COVID-19 are purchased in large quantities, the volume of which is many times higher than what is actually needed, which are then written off. At the same time, other countries / regions are experiencing a shortage of medicines until the expiration date of the medicines accumulated in warehouses expires. In addition, we see crises in the availability of drug groups or individual drugs here and there.

Tens of millions of doses of the vaccine have been written off in the world. And MABs worth hundreds of millions of euros. According to estimates, based on the results of 2021, 150-240 million doses of the vaccine will be written off.

7. Covid beneficiaries?

- administrators (both political and chief doctors)

- entrepreneurs and suppliers (all levels - from manufacturers of test systems and concrete to "slave traders" - providers of labor outsourcing services for hospitals and "innovators")

Covid losers?

- active doctors

- the patients

- the system of medical education - that is, doctors of the future

In this sense, speaking about the "explosive growth of understanding of the importance of the industry and its investment attractiveness", we do not have "investments in health care", but absolutely classically Marxist investments in capital for the sake of its increase. This is not bad, but you shouldn't call it "medical investments". Health care in every sense - from the education of doctors to patients - is in crisis, which is exacerbated by the fact that stakeholders perceive it as a way to earn and strengthen their position.

PS. After a couple of speakers, the CEO of some next startup speaks and perfectly confirms my main thesis, comparing medicine with retail in the sense of a business approach. The most interesting post-form earnings are from remote monitoring and telemedicine (literally in the logic of delivery from Pyaterochka). "People are used to receiving services at home." Telemedicine is our only future, because it is understandable, modern and easy to make money on (the platform holder takes the lion's share of the money spent on consultation). And nothing else is needed .