Israel preparing options for Iran strike

[MikeWB]

IDF preparing options for Iran strike
Dec. 4, 2008
Yaakov Katz , THE JERUSALEM POST
The IDF is drawing up options for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities that do not include coordination with the United States, The Jerusalem Post has learned.

While its preference is to coordinate with the US, defense officials have said Israel is preparing a wide range of options for such an operation.

"It is always better to coordinate," one top Defense Ministry official explained last week. "But we are also preparing options that do not include coordination."

Israeli officials have said it would be difficult, but not impossible, to launch a strike against Iran without receiving codes from the US Air Force, which controls Iraqi airspace. Israel also asked for the codes in 1991 during the First Gulf War, but the US refused.

"There are a wide range of risks one takes when embarking on such an operation," a top Israeli official said.

Several news reports have claimed recently that US President George W. Bush has refused to give Israel a green light for an attack on Iranian facilities. One such report, published in September in Britain's Guardian newspaper, claimed that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert requested a green light to attack Iran in May but was refused by Bush.

In September, a Defense News article on an early warning radar system the US recently sent to Israel quoted a US government source who said the X-band deployment and other bilateral alliance-bolstering activities send parallel messages: "First, we want to put Iran on notice that we're bolstering our capabilities throughout the region, and especially in Israel. But just as important, we're telling the Israelis, 'Calm down, behave. We're doing all we can to stand by your side and strengthen defenses, because at this time, we don't want you rushing into the military option.'"

The "US European Command (EUCOM) has deployed to Israel a high-powered X-band radar and the supporting people and equipment needed for coordinated defense against Iranian missile attack, marking the first permanent US military presence on Israeli soil," Defense News wrote. The radar will shave several precious minutes off Israel's reaction time to an Iranian missile launch.

In a related article at about the same time, TIME magazine raised the possibility that through the deployment of the radar, America wants to keep an eye on Israeli airspace, so that the US is not surprised if and when the IAF is sent to bomb Iran, a scenario Washington wants to avoid.

The US army sent 120 EUCOM personnel to Israel's Nevatim Air Base southeast of Beersheba to man the new radar.

Last week, Iran's nuclear chief Gholam Reza Aghazadeh revealed that the country was operating more than 5,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant in Natanz and would continue to install centrifuges and enrich uranium to produce nuclear fuel for the country's future nuclear power plants.

"At this point, more than 5,000 centrifuges are operating in Natanz," said Aghazadeh, who is also the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. This represents a significant increase from the 4,000 Iran had said were up and running in August at the plant.

The Islamic republic has said it plans to move toward large-scale uranium enrichment that will ultimately involve 54,000 centrifuges.

Israeli officials said last week that the drop in oil prices and the continued sanctions on Iran were having an effect, although they had yet to stop Teheran's nuclear program. The officials said that while Iran was making technological advancements, it would not have the necessary amount of highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb until late 2009.

"There is still time and there is no need to rush into an operation right now," another Israeli official said. "The regime there is already falling apart and will likely no longer be in power 10 years from now."

The IAF was preparing for a wide range of options, OC Air Force Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan recently said, adding that all it would take to launch an operation was a decision by the political echelon.

"The air force is a very robust and flexible force," he told Der Spiegel. "We are ready to do whatever is demanded of us."

On Monday, Teheran dismissed the possibility of an Israeli strike, saying it didn't take Israel seriously.

"We think that regional and international developments and the complicated situation faced by Israel itself will not allow it to launch military strikes against other countries," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi told reporters in Teheran, according to the Press TV Web site. "Israel makes threats to promote its psychological and media warfare," he said.

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[MikeWB]

December 4, 2008
Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants

(Hasan Sarbakhshian/AP)
President Ahmadinejad has defied the West by continuing to enrich uranium
Sheera Frenkel in Jerusalem and Times Online
Israel is drawing up plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and is prepared to launch a strike without backing from the US, it has been reported.

Officials in the Israeli Defence Ministry told the Jerusalem Post that while they prefer to act in consultation with the US, they were preparing plans that would allow them to act in isolation.

"It is always better to coordinate," a senior Defence Ministry official told the newspaper. "But we are also preparing options that do not include coordination."

However defence officials played down the reports today, telling The Times that an attack by Israeli forces alone would probably fail to take out all of Iran's nuclear facilities, which experts say are scattered across several sites, some deep underground.

"We could not risk an operation which would only partially succeed," one defence official told The Times.

"That would leave us open to a nuclear attack from Iran's remaining weapons stock. Israel would likely need the support, the backing, of forces from a Western ally to successfully carry out the operation," he said.

A senior Israeli official quotes in the Jerusalem Post said that while it would be difficult, it would not be impossible to launch a strike against Iran without permission from the US.

"There are a wide range of risks one takes when embarking on such an operation," a senior Israeli official was quoted as saying.

The US Airforce controls the Iraqi airspace Israel's jets would have to cross on a bombing mission and access to codes from the Americans, would "significantly improve" Israel's chances of a successful strike on Iran, an official told The Times.

He added that because the Iranians have been moving the bunkers deep underground, sophisticated weaponry would be needed to successfully destroy the facilities.

Responding to reports that Israel would use low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters", the official said the method was largely speculative and unreliable.

Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, has reportedly asked the US for a green light to attack Iranian facilities as recently as May.

According to Israeli officials, the US denied the request, although it outfitted Israel with the X-band radar system which would shave several crucial minutes off Israel's reaction time to an Iranian missile launch, and allow the United States to oversee Israel's airspace.

"There is always the option of Israel going it alone. It just does not seem like a good option at present time," an Israeli MP told the Times.

There are three central locations where experts believe Iranian facilities are producing goods for nuclear weapons.

Israeli officials named these sites as: Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges produce enriched uranium; Isfahan, where 250 tons of gas are stores in tunnels; and Arak, where a heavy water reactor produces plutonium.

Israeli officials said they were heartened that international sanctions on Iran were having an effect, but did not feel they were enough to stop Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

The most recent Israeli intelligence reports estimate that Iran will have enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in late 2009, barring any interruptions in its programme.

"There is still time and there is no need to rush into an operation right now," another Israeli official said. "The regime there is already falling apart and will likely no longer be in power 10 years from now."

On Monday, Teheran dismissed the possibility of an Israeli strike, saying it didn't take Israel seriously.

"We think that regional and international developments and the complicated situation faced by Israel itself will not allow it to launch military strikes against other countries," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi told reporters in Teheran, adding that "Israel makes threats to promote its psychological and media warfare.

Some Israeli security officials fear that the Iranian retaliation for a strike on its facilities could include a large-scale missile attack on Israel from several Iranian allies, disruption of oil supplies to the West, and terror attacks against Jewish targets around the world.