Top 10 Energy Stories Of 2008

[mobes]

My Top 10 Energy Stories of 2008

Posted by Robert Rapier on December 29, 2008 - 9:52am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: barack obama, cellulosic ethanol, ethanol production, oil prices, original, peak oil, windfall profits, xethanol [list all tags]

Tis the season for Top 10 stories, and here are what I think were the Top 10 energy stories of the year.

1. Unprecedented volatility in the energy markets

Oil prices raced to nearly $150 a barrel, and then fell to the $30's by year end. This marks the highest ever prices for oil, followed by the lowest prices in four years. Gasoline, diesel, and natural gas prices demonstrated the same kind of volatility. There are multiple factors behind the volatility. The role of speculation was hotly debated, and the economic collapse - fueled by cash-strapped consumers who had overextended themselves - resulted in a sharp drop in demand. Some even argued that the real reason behind the plunge in prices was closure of the so-called "Enron loophole."

2. Oil price volatility fallout

A consequence of the incredibly volatility was the economic damage done at both ends of the price spectrum. At the upper end, airlines were going bankrupt and car companies were in deep financial trouble as consumers stopped buying the higher profit margin SUVs. After oil prices plunged, some non-integrated oil companies found themselves in financial trouble, including Flying J who declared bankruptcy.

3. Barack Obama elected

In a normal year, this would have been my #1 story, considering that the new administration has put such a major focus on energy and is likely to attempt a major shift away from fossil fuels. My prediction is that reality is going to collide with enthusiasm, and while gains are likely to be made along several fronts, aggressive renewable energy targets will not be met.

4. Ethanol producers struggle

Despite production mandates and generous federal subsidies, ethanol producers struggled to make a profit. A combination of high corn prices followed by falling fuel prices pushed even some of the largest ethanol producers to bankruptcy. Corn growers fared much better, as higher prices and mandated demand from the ethanol industry provided them with the same sort of windfall seen recently by the oil industry (prompting some to ask whether a windfall profits tax on corn would be good for consumers). Xethanol finally ceased operations, as I had predicted in early 2007.

5. Somali pirates hijack supertanker

Somali pirates, emboldened by recent multi-million dollar ransom payments, hijacked a Saudi supertanker carrying $100 million worth of oil. At the time of this writing, the situation remains unresolved, although the value of the oil at current market prices is now considerably less than $100 million.

6. 2nd generation ethanol is delayed

The story this year was supposed to be "2nd generation ethanol production begins", but alas the over-promise, under-deliver meme that I have been critical of continues. Range Fuels had initially intended to start producing in 2008, but that was delayed to 2009 and now production isn't forecast to begin until 2010. Meanwhile, other 2nd generation ethanol companies continue to promise the world, including Coskata who claims they can make ethanol for "under US $1.00 a gallon anywhere in the world." (I took a good look at those claims here.) Finally, according to this source (another here), of the six cellulosic ethanol projects selected to receive $385 million in federal funding in February 2007, almost two years later only one plant is actually under construction (Range Fuels).

7. Peak oil becomes fashionable, then unfashionable again

High oil prices demanded an explanation, and peak oil was ready to provide that explanation. 2008 was probably the year that the mainstream began to seriously discuss and debate peak oil. However, when prices began to plunge, the peak oil skeptics began to say "I told you so." Others suggested that this was just a continuation of the normal cycles.

8. Gas stations in the southeast run out of gasoline in the wake of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike

Some major oil refineries that shut down in the face of Hurricane Gustav had to remain shut down with Hurricane Ike following closely behind. Gasoline inventories heading into the hurricanes were low, so it wasn't long before spot outages began to show up across the southeast. As I predicted during a panel session at this year's ASPO conference, the outages were likely to be short-lived, and inventories would recover as refineries came back online. This was in response to wide-spread concern, partially fueled by Matt Simmons' presentation, that the outages were the beginning of something much more widespread. (I think my answer was literally "This situation is temporary. I expect inventories a month from now to be substantially higher.")

9. "Drill here, drill now"

Momentum for more exploration and production in U.S. waters increased along with oil prices. This became a campaign theme for Republicans, who adopted the slogan "Drill here, drill now." President Bush lifted a moratorium on offshore drilling. Democrats initially responded with calls for oil companies to be forced to drill on current leases before opening up new ones. However, Congress - facing constituents unhappy with high gas prices - ultimately followed suit and allowed the 25-year moratorium to expire. The response from then candidate Obama was that he wasn't happy to see the moratorium expire, and that he favored "responsible" drilling as part of a broader energy package. My own proposal was to allow drilling and funnel the lease proceeds to alternative energy, mass transit, and other initiatives designed to reduce oil consumption. This proposal later received quite a lot of attention when Paris Hilton proposed the same thing.

10. Record profits by US energy companies

On the back of high oil prices, the integrated oil companies (those who produce both oil and refined products like gasoline and diesel) once again saw record profits. There was an interesting dichotomy, however, as downstream profits in the refining sector vanished as gasoline consumption fell. Pure refiners like Valero saw their profits crash.

That's more or less what I think were the Top 10 stories of 2008. There were quite a few in the honorable mention category, such as T. Boone Pickens energy plan, the decision by OPEC to reverse direction and propose big production cuts, falling oil production in Russia and Mexico, and postponed investments in the wake of lower prices.

So, what did I miss? Which stories do you think should be ranked in a significantly different order?

In closing, Happy Holidays to all readers. I am going to be offline for a while to spend some good family time. Here's hoping that you all have the same opportunity.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4896

[Fueesor439]

Thanks! Bump!

"Husband ah, when are we going to be able to get married ah?" Asked the woman a look of curiosity, from voice to tell, she was asked whether the light is! Their time together in the near future, no more than two years, get along with the two lovers everywhere, will be able to be out a lot, and now, to have a few contacts in the time to consider marriage?
      "Now the work is no breakthrough in two years!" A man lightly Road dough!
      "Oh!" There is no loss of excitement, seems to be expected!
      "Husband ah, that if a child how to do?"
      "You have?" A serious man of a woman holding hands, sharp eyes stare at her!
     "You grasp the pain I!" A woman shouted out, "I just ask, I will have to tell you!
      "His wife, you remember, we are not suitable for children, may be able to economically do not have to think twice, but also psychologically unacceptable, bringing up a child-rearing is not as simple as a small pet; If you have to tell me, I would go to You go to the hospital, get it? "Listening to women, men to lay down their heart, under Sophie
To the voice of women said their views!
     "You rest assured you, I will not pay attention to it, even if you have not conceal the hey!
       Women's refreshing voice sounded once again! But in the bottom of my heart, women do not know if the men agree, then work with each other are in fact also a good balance and stability; have thought many times, only men have been mentioned in the early exchanges to get married, when contact with each other to become a stable after the marriage has not been involved in ; Datailielie Although the woman, but not really silly! In fact, they really do not know of a problem in the end what? Love is not it? Although not feel it did not feel that love is not love which may be time for both the quiet! Now they live in the house, a woman is half of the mortgage money; she used to balance! Shopping on weekdays, he has never had to accompany her, she never felt any discomfort, the habit of self-entertainment, after all, happiness is the easiest way, it is time to think of this action will they be able to measure his feelings.

"Ah husband, your shopping with me, okay? You never accompany me on the street!" Said a woman fractious.
        "So busy! Well-behaved, I have to think of how to accompany today?" Asked the man casually!
        "Would you like to do?"
        "I go, what to buy their own money is going!" A man of vision has always been focused on the document!
        "Her husband, all of a sudden I want to marry you, how do?" Pure and beautiful faces of small sparkling big eyes looked innocent men; this sentence to a man's attention back to her. Looking at the front of the men are not classified under the cruel reality of too many traces of the woman's impatience with the inability to faint!
       "The paper for you, this is what is the point?" Put in the hands of men and women intend to work in good time to talk about!
       "I do not know! You want to get married and involved with the paper?"
       "You want to get married do not want is the paper?" Affecting men under the eyebrow.
       "If you would like as you can, and you have never thought I would get married? Is also asking you not to the future, I count!" Continues to be the voice of the light.
       "From the very beginning that I intend to go along with you, you would not understand." Indirect man answered.
       "You never directly answered my question Ye, no matter what kind of problems!" The voice of a woman on the very satay; "Well, you do not discuss with you, so I infuriating! Hee hee, I own you go shopping, do not you go and sing! "A voice down, she took the package to light the gesture out of the room!
       
         Behind a closed door, the smile was instant Chenxia Lai Ying's face, pale and sad face changed, at the end of a pupil of the eye could not capture people's blurred quiet night! To take steps, walk slowly in the crowded people on the road, his mind was a blank space is also filled with the thoughts have been that he is able to quickly transition to enlarge harm the joy of the happy, exhausted by the effort, but Can not do; DC tears! Sometimes not willing to lose but had to succumb to the fate of fate! This fairy happy, unhappy! Enough to cry, tears up smiling away, walking into the street to the election of his beloved ten sets of suits and ties 10 10 10 shirt brooch 10 pairs of socks and 10 pairs of shoes, credit cards were almost violent brush, but she can smile See eye! This time, she is also a wizard, can infect human spirit!
         Can not carry too many things, the car had no choice but to fight back! The elated to show off his own record, he had seen so many clothes, faint edge of the mouth twitch, looking at the side of doing things has always been amazed that she did not know what reaction!
       "Ah husband, which I pick, good, right?" Looked out of his suit her self-satisfaction, their own vision has always been her self-confidence! Wow leveling, wow gold, Cheap WoW Power Leveling Store wow power leveling, we professionally focused on providing wow powerleveling service and offers 24/7 non-stop power leveling and wow gold service. With the quickest speed and best service we will satisfy your powerleveling aspiration for your game. We only employ the most professional players and assign only those familiar with your specific class to play your characters. So your character can be leveled by our professional players who are expert in World of Warcraft,We have helped thousands of players reached their desired levels at their appointed time. In addition, we have a strong credit standing and the safety of your  Wow leveling, wow gold Cheap wow power leveling Store account will be protected forever. Our motto is "Do what you wish!".传奇私服 And our high quality service, good reputation and competitive price will make you enjoy your purchase from us.
       "Husband ah, remember these clothes have been slowly wear Oh, good-looking today to see the Bangni Mai on a whim! Well, you do not like to say a word, I let you go eat bear the consequences, not heard ? "The threat of flying back and deliberately goes Banqi Jiao Didi's face!
       "Good! I do not like to say, but so what do you buy? How you always so wasteful!" A man accused of double meaning.
       "Oh you, husband, in any case have to buy you called me a useless ah! You have a little more pain I love these clothes now, the better Hao Ma?" Fanciful shaking his hand, look like the wronged ! When he returned to her a helpless look, Rourou her hair;
        "Good good! You, so do not remember after the hearing did not? Otherwise, even if you do not like me, fractious Rao Oh!"
       "Enenenen!" Hard rock of the head!
       "Hei hei ... West ..." Lie Zhezui woman has been kept a giggle, also started seeing this man smiling mouth, he's too cute women, and children as worry-free as well as mature women Intellectual; "wife" as she was, what does not? He was also pondering the parents see things, have been instituted marriage is no longer a matter just want to give her a surprise, with first place, he determined to marry her! "Ah husband and I go home this month Qupei my mother, OK? Graduate now I have not spent a good home, her mother Hao Xiang me, I am afraid to bully his wife's brother Qudao my mother, I will have to make good ' Education 'younger brother! "In the evening when her floor with his hands on him Naozhao itch, he escaped while his claws, fun side:" Do you remember my mother finally have a conscience? "" West, but I have other people Good female child's cry! Husband and I bought a ticket for tomorrow at noon, during this period of time you'll take good care of their own! "
         "So you are scheming ah, I say you how all of a sudden so good to me!" A man pretending to Xiongshenesha!
        "Ha ha, you have not filled it up! Hate ~。。。"
          Laughter overflow the whole world!

In the past two weeks, the men did not refrain from expressing my views at the side of the deserted woman, her naughty miss, miss her body temperature; her phone call, softly-spoken men wear women's buying back as soon as possible! The phone as she was fresh and cool Yin Ling-like laughter echoed throughout the mind that he committed red eyes!
        "His wife, you come back, OK? We get married!"
         Phone the other end in a moment such as static dead! "You are not refusing to marry me?" After the silence, the woman asked gently!
        "I am not saying that I would like to in due course give you a pleasant surprise, but still first Aobu Guo said miss!" Explained the man!
        "West, good, you go back and waiting for me, okay?" To restore wizard-like women! Seems to be the same all over the world!
        To half a month later, men see women not to delay the re-dial telephone; this time the phone rang for a long time before then, is the younger brother of a woman's access, the men asked him how women have not come back, the younger brother said She also need to address the point where things can not go away so quickly, very quickly this time, please do not linked to his heart! Another half a month after a man received a call from the woman's brother, the phone, his younger brother at once to their home, a woman said something! A man was scared to death, the ticket will be good to run the airport as Jianban!
In the city of x, then the woman's younger brother, his brother recognized a man, all the way to silence the men received hospital; sense of foreboding hung over the men, Ward opened the door, a woman's face pale and thin man living shock, the heart of Meng The pulling of a hard, colic encounter! Soft dragged weak legs, to take a step around a woman's eyes closed, his hands gently Fuzhao of that familiar face, you look forward to patted the! "Stomach cancer late sister, has dragged on for two months!" His brother said softly to one side, the woman's parents and an instant red eye socket! The accident, really unexpected, even to the accident was not clear how Dunong matter, he felt that the accident was in the clouds!

Stomach cancer, had always said that the woman did not always eat appetite, weight loss, said a woman's career, this is done under the pretext that he did not blame themselves how hard to look at; blame themselves so let women alone to the effect that this pluggin The most difficult days! Woman to heaven after half a month! From a woman living in the city sent a letter, the man looked familiar characters, trembling all over:
         Dear husband:
        I think in a certain, shall we? Yes, definitely, I have felt it to heaven! Husband ah, you want to get married and I really touched Oh well! Originally thought you were just like me and do not spend my life thinking! Her husband, thank you for your love!
       With you ah, the world really is the happiest thing! Every morning you will wake up call Ma hand, the West, you know? Her husband, this is the most fresh in the memory of the most moving moment, the home of these days I can not sleep, not your arm when you do not embrace a pillow when Harbor; but I do not regret it, I do not want to see you, I was The disease is not suffering like the human form, I believe for you, I will not let you see the suffering of their own side! Her husband, forgive me, after only laugh in heaven listening to you!

Ah husband a year ago, how much I would like to set the time frame, how have you always want to always bear in mind at the bottom of my heart, but how do you find just could not, I do not know how to do so in order to feel comfortable, I know you I hear the voices of laughter, in fact, I like it or own them laugh, so laugh every day, so you will always remember me, is not a good selfish? I am afraid that after I left you my all into a dust-laden Lian Peng not to touch the corner, I fear, I fear there will be cold, so let your love for me never forget! Every day as I came on the last day, so enough, you have this life, enough!
     Last Bang Nimai shoes and socks and clothes, you have a year left in my day to put on a good look at me? Ten sets, that is 10 years, 10 years, you can only ten days time I would like to, in particular the day, you can not be allowed and I think I do not want to, you know I like purple roses, to remember To find Oh, my husband but I am confident of it! Recall that a year is the day to wear, other times not to touch those clothes, if you have forgotten, then you are old, after seeing those clothes, maybe I can think of the requirements of this! West, after you marry a wife, remember to bring that day when I can, but do not tell her who I am, a woman will not mind, said. . . Uh. . . I say, is your childhood, okay? I am envious of those people who grew up in Taipei Story Oh! After you marry a wife, that she is "Our wife," Would you like us to the wife Hao E, as for me, because I looked at it in the sky; though I would cry jealous, but I do not even willing to hurt a girl ; My next life you owe my life, okay? My next life I will be a good good health and healthy baby, I will be forced to put the wrapped around your whole life, until old!

Her husband, I do not want to tell you I love you of this fact, you are afraid to cry! I have seen you cry once, I was headstrong and you have to break; but now you must also crying, right? Not just crying their eyes, hearts are tears! Husband ah, do not let heart stopped in the cell that Qichu sorrow of the sorrowful moment, a smile in the face of life, help me laugh End this life, will you?

From now on, not sad not depressed; I would like to use as long as 10 years in the ten days; after 10 years of my life from a completely clear, I am selfish, but I fear my selfishness I hate you; so I rely on you 10 years, 10 years on, okay? 10 years, we really forget each other, and look forward to the next life!

In carrying out the agreement has been stupid kids

Teardrop wet letterheads, men cried! Gradually the dark days, black, light headlamp came out of the window, finishing a good mood men; "his wife, I remember you 10 years, you would like to ten days, you have to survive a lifetime!"

     Gently, into the sky Ni-nan ........