SUPERSTRUCT - A Sneak Preview of The Final Threat

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

SUPERSTRUCT - A Sneak Preview of The Final Threat

What does the world of 2019 look like? Find out now.

The full report from the Global Extinction Awareness System is LIVE -- and you can read it here for the first time anywhere. Find out exactly why the human species may face extinction by the year 2042 – and what we can do about it.

With this report, the Superstruct Story is just beginning. Two weeks from today, on October 6, 2008, we'll flip the game switch on. Then it's YOUR turn to tell the story of 2019 – and to help invent the future.

So read the scenario now... and get ready to start superstructing!

(And if you can't wait to start participating, join the Superstruct group on Facebook now. See what players are already talking about and planning for the game...)

The Final Threat:

Outputs of the Global Extinction Awareness System's
2019 Petabyte-Scale Global Simulation

Overview

The human species has a long history of overcoming tremendous obstacles, often coming out stronger than before. Indeed, some anthropologists argue that human intelligence emerged as the consequence of the last major ice age, a period of enormous environmental stress demanding flexibility, foresight and creativity on the part of the small numbers of early Homo sapiens. Historically, those who have prophesied doom for human civilization have been proven wrong, time and again, by the capacity of our species to both adapt to and transform our conditions.

It is in this context that the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS) offers its forecast of the likely extinction of humankind within the next quarter-century.

The GEAS forecast differs from earlier doomsday predictions in three significant ways:

The first is that GEAS does not link this extinction to a single factor. No one disease or war or environmental hazard poses a sufficient danger to draw us to this conclusion. Instead, it is the combination of factors, each below the threshold necessary to put our survival at risk. These factors--which we are calling "super-threats"--reinforce each other in substantive ways, creating a set of conditions that we believe capable of ending the human experiment.

The second difference is that the GEAS forecast relies on the WorldRun simulation system. Adapted from the GEAS ecosystem simulations that successfully predicted the unexpected extinctions of red squirrels in 2015, WorldRun draws on a multi-petabyte information base and a massively-parallel computing cloud. Running for nearly 50 days, the first WorldRun simulation offered a likely human extinction date sometime in the early 2040s. Subsequent modeling and confirmation tests have narrowed that likely extinction date to 2042 --just 23 years from now.

The third difference is that GEAS does not argue or believe that this future is unavoidable. This is perhaps the most important element of our forecast. This is not fate. If we act now--and act with intelligence, flexibility, foresight and creativity--we can avoid the final threat. We may even come out of this period far stronger than we were before.

The Superthreats

GEAS has identified five superthreats and given them memorable names as a way of encouraging discussion and awareness:

    * Quarantine covers the global response to declining health and pandemic disease, including the current Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ReDS) crisis.

    * Ravenous focuses on the imminent collapse of the global food system, as well as debates over industrial vs. ecological agricultural models, and basic issues of access, energy, and carbon.

    * Power Struggle tracks the results of energy resource peaks and the shifts in international power as nations fight for energy supremacy and the world searches for alternative energy solutions.

    * Outlaw Planet embodies the volatile mix of new forms of surveillance, transparency, civil rights, and access to information as people work out new rules for human security.

    * Generation Exile follows the massive "diaspora of diasporas" underway globally, as the number of refugees and migrants skyrockets in the face of climate change, economic disruption, and war.

At GEAS, we were surprised when the WorldRun simulation produced these five issues as key threats to our existence. It's clear that none of these threats, individually, has the capacity to drive the human species to extinction. But it has become equally clear that, in combination, these threats reinforce each other, and make the easy resolution to any one threat difficult. The models demonstrated how easily these five could have a "vicious cycle" effect, leading all too quickly into a cascading set of catastrophic collapses of key global social and resource systems.

We were also surprised to see that climate disruption was not listed among our primary threats. However, climate change sets important thresholds for all five superthreats, which should be considered in the light of a still degrading global environment.

Considering the Threats

The five superthreats divide into to two broad categories. Two of the threats--Quarantine and Ravenous--emerge from changes to the physical environment in which humanity lives. As with all of the super-threats, the key dilemmas embedded in these threats are sociopolitical, but both strongly reflect the old environmental adage that "nature bats last." Two more of the threats--Outlaw Planet and Generation Exile--come directly from problems of social cohesion and civil society. These two super-threats undermine our capacity to respond quickly and effectively to global dilemmas. The last threat--Power Struggle--straddles the two categories, with both a strong environmental component and a basis in the fragility of existing institutions.

Put simply, each of these five super-threats makes the others worse.

The WorldRun Simulation

In the multiple WorldRun simulation exercises GEAS has performed, the details can vary, but the outcome has been consistent: by the decade between 2040 and 2050, typically closer to the beginning of the period, the combined drivers described here as "superthreats" have driven the global human population to collapse. The super-threats are rarely directly responsible for the result; instead, the combination has so weakened human civilization that any one new global crisis looms catastrophic: a succession of global warming-driven superstorms, regional war, or new pandemic disease--any of which would become more likely as a result of the superthreats--would be enough to trigger the wholesale collapse of the human endeavor.

http://www.iftf.org/node/2317

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

(Below is a sample news release from the Role-Playing Game)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

SEPTEMBER 22, 2019

Humans have 23 years to go

Global Extinction Awareness System starts the countdown for Homo sapiens.

PALO ALTO, CA — Based on the results of a year-long supercomputer simulation, the Global Extinction Awareness System (GEAS) has reset the "survival horizon" for Homo sapiens - the human race - from "indefinite" to 23 years.

"The survival horizon identifies the point in time after which a threatened population is expected to experience a catastrophic collapse," GEAS president Audrey Chen said. "It is the point from which a species is unlikely to recover. By identifying a survival horizon of 2042, GEAS has given human civilization a definite deadline for making substantive changes to planet and practices."

According to Chen, the latest GEAS simulation harnessed over 70 petabytes of environmental, economic, and demographic data, and was cross-validated by ten different probabilistic models. The GEAS models revealed a potentially terminal combination of five so-called "super-threats", which represent a collision of environmental, economic, and social risks. "Each super-threat on its own poses a serious challenge to the world's adaptive capacity," said GEAS research director Hernandez Garcia. "Acting together, the five super-threats may irreversibly overwhelm our species' ability to survive."Garcia said, "Previous GEAS simulations with significantly less data and cross-validation correctly forecasted the most surprising species collapses of the past decade: Sciurus carolinenis and Sciurus vulgaris, for example, and Anatidae chen. So we have very good reason to believe that these simulation results, while shocking, do accurately represent the rapidly growing threats to the viability of the human species."

GEAS notified the United Nations prior to making a public announcement. The spokesperson for United Nations Secretary General Vaira Vike-Freiberga released the following statement: "We are grateful for GEAS' work, and we treat their latest forecast with seriousness and profound gravity."

GEAS urges concerned citizens, families, corporations, institutions, and governments to talk to each other and begin making plans to deal with the super-threats.

http://www.iftf.org/node/2098

[jai_mann]

Fuck these computer models. "All models are wrong, some models are useful."-Anonymous. The point is that who ever makes the model can design the model to predict outcomes which they either desire or wish to support. We already know these douche bags are claiming the planet can't support the life on it which is bullshit. They are intentionally hindering crop production and destroying viable land by not rotating crops (even "uneducated" farmers know this).

-"Pandemic" disease is being created and spread BY the governments who are acting as agents for the leaders of secret societies.

-Any food crisis will be engineered AND if they expect a crisis then WTF aren't major government organs such as the depart. of agriculture demanding that all viable land be put into production. Well I guess they can't engineer a food crisis if they did that now could they??

-Energy peak? What a load of horse shit! This notion has been floated for decades. However, the very notion relies upon those who control the energy resources and who have suppressed Tesla's work and the work of others for decades. Higher mileage cars were available decades ago but the oil companies started adding shit to the fuel to prevent improved carb systems from working. Hydrogen mixed w/ gas systems were tested and found to improve efficiency by NASA and universities back in the 70's.

Computer models are dangerous in the hands of groups who will operate to promote Globalists bullshit.