Guest Post: JP Morgan 2009 Q3 Results – Miracle or Mirage?

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

Guest Post: JP Morgan 2009 Q3 Results – Miracle or Mirage?
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/16/2009 13:49 -0500


Looks lie Muhammed Rafeeq got a post at ZeroHedge. Iamthewitness.com link visible... site has a high readership. Nice.

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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest- ... -or-mirage

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

Looks like the Jew Idiots posting at ZH got upset with Iamthewitness.com. Looks like they want to define Tier 1 forgetting the crap related to Idiot Jewification of the bankrupt NY Banks like Citi, BoA, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.    

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* reply

by ArkansasAngie
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:33
#101159

gee ... I like what he says but his web site ... dang ... that's bit ... something.

Too bad ...

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:39
#101166

I agree about the website content. However, his findings either are valid or not. Its hard to believe that JPM would let anything this obvious out the door. However, I see nothing wrong with his analysis. So, let's see what develops.

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 15:20
#101231

Nothing develops. The website disqualifies this person from being taken seriously on any matter. It is disappointing that Zero Hedge published this.

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by Miles Kendig
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 16:27
#101327

Facts are facts regardless of who presents them.  What are your established standards for propriety to be able to present facts and if you ever did anything to jeopardize those standards could you be manipulated by it?

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 16:59
#101366

Your question is utterly incoherent, Miles Kendig. Is that a picture of Eddie Vedder?

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by McGriffen
on Sat, 10/17/2009 - 10:26
#101988

It is the dearly departed Layne Staley, lead vocalist for AIC (one of the best voices from that glorious era).

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:34
#101162

"It was real wasn't it?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5C4N7UwVS4

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:45
#101173

Maybe the money went to some off balance sheet entity.

"We didn't lose it. It is resting peacefully at an undisclosed location."

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:48
#101177

Website does his credit worthiness justice. S&P 1110 before we see a pullback.

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by TraderMark
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:49
#101178

Bernanke successfully reinflating oil

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2009/10 ... n-techni...

if only housing prices were so easy

 

Gold - check

Equities - check

Oil - check

Food - to do

Housing - to do

 

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by carbonmutant
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:52
#101183

A drop of $100 Billion in deposits is being ignored..??

That's pretty tight media management.

 

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 15:06
#101201

yes that website ranks among the most disgusting
filth on the internet....you can always count
on neo-nazi jew hating scum to come out of the
wood work during a financial crisis....

mohommad - go fuck yourself bitch

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:52
#101184

The link to the website in the beginning of the article kind of hurts its credibility.

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 14:57
#101191

Cash is NOT Tier 1 Capital. It is a Zero Risk Weighted Asset. Get your terms right.

Furthermore, on the question of deposits, a closer look at the details shows the drop was entirely in the Treasury & Securities Services SBU where "deposits" naturally fall as AUM falls (which happens when the market falls out of bed and fails to recover, as it has over the past 12mos).

I'm not necessarily a JPM fan, but this is yellow jounalism masquerading as financial analysis.

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by Green Sharts
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 16:19
#101315

I'm not necessarily a JPM fan, but this is yellow jounalism masquerading as financial analysis.

Absolutely.  It is complete crap.  You can't pull a handful of balance sheet items without looking at the entire balance sheet.  It is not unusual to see big fluctuations in cash balances; the difference could be in investment securities, excess cash could have been used to pay down debt, etc.  That's why companies issue statements of cash flow along with income statements and balance sheets.

With regard to deposits, it is not surprising to see JPM's deposits down year over year.  JPM is not primarily a retail bank.  It acquired Washington Mutual prior to the 9/30/08 balance sheet and WaMu came with a lot of deposits, including CDs at higher than market rates.  WaMu had liquidity problems and was paying above market rates to attract deposits.  JPM is probably not offering above market rates and I'm sure a lot of CD money is flowing out of JPM as CDs mature.

Does ZH vet these kind of pieces at all?  It will ultimately kill the credibility of the website if they are willing to post anything that is bearish regardless of whether it's valid or not.  And I say that as somebody who is extremely bearish.

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by Sancho Ponzi
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 16:54
#101359

'a closer look at the details shows the drop was entirely in the Treasury & Securities Services SBU where "deposits" naturally fall as AUM falls'

If you look at the balance sheet for the JPM/Chase Retail Financial Services division, for the last three quarters, EOP deposits are down 10 billion per quarter - no small bleed.

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 15:25
#101239

I almost always find phenomenal analysis here... but the piece above is a glaring exception. Since when is "cash" the primary form of tier 1 capital? That statement impuned the authors credibility off the bat. And of course deposits have run-off. JP Morgan bough Washington Mutual just before 9/30/08. I a desperate effort to attract liquidity Wamu had been paying up for high cost, wholesale deposits. JP Morgan is letting this inferior form of funding roll off. Poor effort Muhammed.

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by Green Sharts
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 16:24
#101322

Anon, I didn't see your post previously as I replied to the one above it.  I agree completely and made basically the same points you did.  ZH will fade into irrelevance if it keeps putting up content like this.

Part of ZH's creed is to be suspicious of what you read and hear, yet we have people here who clearly don't know how to read financial statements or know much about banks who immediately assumed this was a great piece of analysis.

I am concerned that ZH is rapidly becoming an echo chamber largely devoted to rants instead of legitimately critical analysis.

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by putbuyer
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 17:55
#101421

I think ZH is getting better every day. Semantics? but I always thought that cash was tier  1 capital - capital, banks can have an influence on. What other form of capital is above cash? Please educate me.

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by Green Sharts
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 18:11
#101438

No cash isn't Tier 1 capital.  If you Google "Tier 1 capital", the first search result is to Wikipedia which has a basic definition of it.

If on the last day of the quarter a company uses cash to pay a supplier or to buy a one year treasury bill, did it reduce its net worth?  No.

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by putbuyer
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 18:31
#101445

Green. I think yes. They in fact paid over the base value of that inventory. If you buy a diamond ring and then sell it 1 minute later - you lose 50%. Treasuries are Interest rate notes - same kind of pain, no? (Over time based on market)

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by Green Sharts
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 18:37
#101458

We're talking Accounting 101 stuff here.  With all due respect, you don't even understand the basics.  The "analysis" by the contributor is garbage.

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 18:54
#101485

I've always liked ZH but I agree that posting what is essentially a rant aimed at JPM without checking the facts is bogus. I hope ZH can clarify this.

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 15:39
#101259

I don't see the point of the article as June 09 numbers are similar to Sept. 09 numbers. Deposits could have dropped for a number of reasons like going back to mutual funds (money market, bonds, stocks) following the panic in September 08. I wish the author posted cash deposits for quarters before Sept. 08.

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 16:24
#101321

Anyone who know anything about financial statements and bank balance sheets will tell you that this "analysis" has absolutely no logic to it whatsoever! Author obviously knows very little about finance/accounting outside of his ability to add/subtract numbers...

I usually love the ZH approach to the "truth telling" but posting this one is an absolute embarrassment to say the least and will certainly take away some credibility from other issues...

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by Anonymous
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 17:28
#101392

That guys website is horrific, I sincerely hope zerohedge stops posting articles with links back to that site.

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by putbuyer
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 17:57
#101423

Yes I agree it's visually loud, but you would not judge a book by it's cover - right?

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by Careless Whisper
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 18:38
#101459

Muhammed Refeeq, Zero's new Guest Post Financial Analyst and expert on all things Zion is affiliated with an interesting web site.

I didn't know that "the radical homosexual movement in the United States is a Jewish movement". Oyy vey. Who would have thought?

Slavery? Blame it on Colombus and the 5 Jews on board. Didn't know that.

The international criminal network known as The Synagogue of Satan has existed since 740. That's over 1,000 years. Damn they can keep a secret.

But my all time favorite article from Muhammed Refeeq, Zero's new financial analyst and JPMorgan expert: "Jewish Financing Of The Nazi Party".

http://www.iamthewitness.com/

 

 

 

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by Green Sharts
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 18:48
#101477

I wouldn't think about clicking on the website of this vile scumbag.  I don't need any computer viruses.

This is an embarrassment to ZH.  All anybody who wants to discredit anything they say has to do is point to this.

Hopefully one of the ZH crew looks at this thread and has enough sense to pull it, issue an apology and start screening "contributor" posts more carefully.

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by long-shorty
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 20:34
#101567

thanks for helping to keep the site useful.

this piece doesn't hold water on its face, but now that I know it was written by a fundamentalist who would love to see half of my friends and investors die, it's wrong on a whole different level.

makes me wonder what TD's hopes and dreams are for society. who is to blame for our ills in TD's world?

this shit doesn't belong on any respectable website.

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by Green Sharts
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 21:32
#101629

makes me wonder what TD's hopes and dreams are for society. who is to blame for our ills in TD's world?

See the more recent thread on the Harvard endowment where TD says he doesn't care about this crackpot's website, that he posts links to Bloomberg, the WSJ and other MSM where objective people could find things that are more objectionable, believe it or not.

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by ChickenTeriyakiBoy
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 19:01
#101491

well skewered careless whisper. that is some fringe stuff. was that introduction to his exhaustive 2-page research report some kind of threat? i vote no more muhammed

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by Rama V
on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 19:59
#101528

In order to attain a fair treatment of the Palestenians, people such as Muhammed Refeeq must not be given credibility.