Financial Jew (Richard Russell): How I Became a True Believer (in on going Talmudic Scams)

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

Didn't know the Dow Theory Letter writer Richard Russell    was a "crypto" kind of figures though... --CSR


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How I Became a True Believer
By Richard Russell  06/20/2012   

old planeThe anniversary of D-day (when the Allies invaded France) has passed, so I thought I'd write something personal about WWII.

It's early in the year 1945. I'm in the nose of a B-25 Mitchell two-engine medium bomber. I'm a flight officer and I'm the bombardier of our six-man crew -- it's my job to use the top-secret Norden bomb-sight and drop the bombs where they're supposed to go. We're nearing the strategic Brenner Pass (a pass through the Alps), through which the Germans move much of their munitions with which they supply the Nazi forces in Italy. (The Norden bombsight is a top-secret instrument, and every bombardier has sworn to guard it with his life).

I can feel my two metal dog tags, cold against my sweaty chest. On my tags is an "H" for Hebrew. To be caught by the Germans as a bombardier means death. To be caught as a Jew in combat against the Nazis means death on the spot (forget the prison camp). The Army gives us Jews our choice of putting an H on our dog tags or not. I chose, for some reason, to have the revealing H stamped into my brass dog tags. (The H identifies you as a Jew, and tells the grave-diggers the way you want to be buried, just in case you don't make it).

I'm lighting a ciggie with my stainless steel Zippo lighter (it throws up a tiny, steady blue flame at 10,000 feet), just enough to light my cig. I'm sitting on my steel helmet. I wear two chutes, one on my back and one on my chest. If a fragment of flak comes up from below, I want to protect my fannie area -- this for obvious reasons.

I've already dropped our collection of 100 pound bombs, and I'm thinking that I'm lucky because they all went out -- no single bomb stuck in the bomb bay rack. If one is stuck, I'm the poor bastard who has to crawl out on the open bomb bay and pry it loose.

Now the flak is coming up big time. The Brenner Pass is one of the most heavily guarded areas in Italy. It's ringed with German 88s. The Krauts are using their damnable radar-controlled 88s as they try to knock us out of the blue Italian sky. Black puffs are appearing all around us. Some of the bursting flak whacks our fuselage, and it sounds as though somebody is throwing handfuls of gravel at the plane.

I take a deep drag on my ciggie and break out in a cold sweat. The plane in front of me is hit; it's left engine is burning. My good friend, John Mahoney (the "Mad Irishman" with a great voice), is on that plane. I watch as his plane drops out of our formation and sinks slowly towards the good earth. I remember that his bomb bay doors were closed (what a screw up), and he's still got a full bomb load in his "Mitchell." And I wonder if his bombs are armed. If so, when they hit the ground Mahoney will be blown sky-high. I catch a glimpse of his plane hitting the ground -- no explosion. That lucky devil, his bombs still had their props on -- they were on safety. No explosions.

The flak is all around us now. I'm crouched (stuffed) in the corner of the plexiglass nose of our plane. I have a fantasy that I'm a tiny invisible bat. Crackle goes another round of "gravel" on the side of the plane. Suddenly, I remember with chagrin that I've always been an agnostic. "The hell with that!" Then I say aloud, "Please God, get me out of this alive and in one piece, and I'll never ask you for anything again."

I lied. I've asked for a lot since those days.

After the War I've had many other "flirts" with death. A mastoid operation in which I barely survived, two heart attacks, a stroke, a broken hip at the age of 86, a high speed (65MPH) motorcycle crash on California 80 East. Too many near death experiences for one man.

So the other day I asked myself, What have I learned from all these incidents -- any one of which could have left me for dead? I've had too many near-death experiences to call them merely a series of coincidences. My thinking is that the good Lord wants me alive for some reason. Conclusion -- I guess my work on this planet isn't finished -- I'm still here.

Awhile ago a friend asked me how long I want to live.

I said, "Maybe to 110."

"Why would you want to live that long?" he questioned.

I answered, "I want to see what happens."

http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... e-believer

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Looks like this old Jew is watching it all fall to pieces... and is still looking to make a buck off of it all --  "Classic" J-Tribe IMHO.   --CSR

Be Aware of the Big Picture

By Richard Russell  

7/10/2012   


The following is an excerpt from Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters

"Charlie Munger and I have not learned how to solve difficult business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them." Warren Buffett

A Critical Concept -- I want my subscribers to be acutely aware of the very BIG picture. The big picture can be understood if you fully understand the yield cycle. Throughout stock market history, the yield on the Dow has run from tiny yields to high yields, and back to minuscule yields again, and then back to high yields. The yield on the Dow is now a minuscule 2.62% (indicative of a bull market top). Ultimately, in this bear market we will see the Dow decline to an area where the yield on the Dow is 6% or more (indicative of a bear market bottom). The only way we will see high yields on the Dow is for the Dow to head down. I don't know HOW the Dow is going to go down. But I do know that the Dow will not head straight down. The Dow's downward path to 6% or more yield will be erratic and difficult to follow. The downward path will probably include several cyclical (abbreviated) bull and bear markets. If you can understand what I write in this paragraph, you will know roughly what to expect in the (perhaps many) years ahead.

I keep harping on this one particular subject. With the inclusion of Asia (China and the emerging Asian nations) into the global economic mix, the world is now producing more goods and merchandise than it can use or buy. Basically, this is the formula for deflation, the more so since this massive amount of Asian merchandise is being exported at viciously competitive prices.

As the world gets "squeezed," the price of everything comes under pressure, and this includes commodities. The commodity chart below illustrates what I am talking about. But the cost of services holds steady or even moves higher. This is the reason why prices have been increasing in grocery stores and supermarkets. I have wondered how the Trader Joe's chain can under-sell the big chains like Safeway. I buy a long list of groceries at Trader Joe's, and it seems as though my total is about half of what the same items would have cost at Safeway. Of course, Trader Joe's deals in specialties that it prices very competitively.

dbc 5 jul 2012

Another major area that I have been concentrating on is China, which is the current economic locomotive of the planet. I'm worried about the Chinese situation. If China slows down or sinks into recession, the rest of the world will almost surely sink with it. China has cut its basic interest rate twice in the last few months in an effort to stir up business. The two charts below are cause for worry. The first is the important stock exchange of Shanghai. Here we see this index slumping and more recently sinking below both its moving averages. Not good action.

ssec 5 jul 2012

The chart below I include as a confirming chart. This is the Chinese "Dow." and it doesn't look good to me. What we see here is a series of declining tops, and then a serious breakdown below both moving averages.

fxi 5 jul 2012

China must "unswervingly" continue its property price controls and prevent prices from rebounding, Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday, after the central bank cut interest rates and triggered a surge in property stocks. Russell Comment -- China, learning from the US housing's surge and later collapse, is making certain that the same thing doesn't occur in China.

Question -- If a butterfly waves its wings in China, will the rest of the world suffer hurricanes?

CONGRESS -- not the president nor the Fed decides on government spending. Congress -- not the president nor the Fed draws up the US tax code. And Congress alone decides the US debt ceiling.

PROBLEMS --

(1) The US debt limit. This is a cap that Congress placed on the US government debt, a cap that puts a limit on government borrowing and spending. The US debt limit was placed into law in the year 1917. It's a disgrace that the debt limit has been raised by Congress 91 times since 1940.

(2) Fiscal Cliff. What do they mean when they talk about the "Fiscal Cliff"? It's an economic precipice that was placed into law last summer -- it starts on January 1st, 2013. The Fiscal Cliff threatens to plunge the US into an even deeper recession. It consists of fiscal cuts of up to $720 billion over time, starting on January 1st, 2013. At the same time, a host of tax cuts will also expire. The fiscal cliff also includes the onset of $1.2 trillion in spending cuts. Russell Comment -- The Fiscal Cliff, if it occurs, is the perfect formula for turning the current recession into a depression. Now it's all up to Congress!

Sequester -- This is an ugly word and an ugly process. These are the mandatory spending cuts to come as part of the fiscal cliff: $600 billion must be cut in defense, another $600 billion must be cut in domestic programs. All these cuts must be completed by January 1st, 2013. If Congress can't find comparable cuts by then, these mandatory cuts are intended to force Congress to reduce long-term deficits. So far, Congress has failed to make the mandatory cuts.

Below is a daily chart of the sinking euro. What would it mean if the euro were to collapse and fall apart? Germany's popular Der Spiegel magazine answers the question as follows: "Now Europe is back to thinking the unthinkable... it would be a dream for nationalist politicians, and a nightmare for the economy. Everything that has grown together in two decades of euro history would have to be painstakingly torn apart. Millions of contracts, business relationships and partnerships would have to be reassessed, while thousands of companies would need protection from bankruptcy. All of Europe would plunge into a deep recession. Governments, which would be forced to borrow additional billions to meet their needs, would face the choice between two unattractive options: either to drastically increase taxes or to impose significant financial burdens on their citizens in the form of higher inflation."

xeu 5 jul 2012

Russell Comment -- The world has entered into its current mess by over-leveraging, over-borrowing, and living beyond its means ever since WWII. It has been able to do this through an explosion of credit -- better known as a "credit bubble."  

The solution to today's credit troubles has been addressed by the various central banks. The antidote they have chosen is more liquidity and a drive to increase the use of credit. Of course, this solution will only worsen the problem through time.

Comment -- Last Friday's market was the broadest down-market that I have seen this year. True, the Dow was down only 124.20 points. But ALL 19 of the sectors that Dow- Jones posts every day closed down. That's the first time this year that I've seen this occur. The sectors that D-J posts daily include the Nasdaq, the S&P 600, the Housing Sector, the Bank sector, the D-J total market sector, the D-J Utility sector, the oil service sector, the gold/silver sector, and so on.

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