Two Scenarios for Russia’s Engagement Against ISIL in Syria

[MikeWB]

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151001/1027848793/syria-russia-two-options.html

On September 30, Russia launched airstrikes against ISIL militants on the Syrian ground. According to experts, now Moscow has two scenarios for further development of the operation.

On September 30, combat jets of the Russian Air Force conducted the first round of airstrikes against the Islamic State (ISIL) terrorist group in Syria.

Now, with a Russian military operation in Syria underway, Moscow has two scenarios for further developments – defensive and offensive, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported citing Russian and foreign experts.

The offensive came just several hours after the Upper House of the Russian Parliament approved a request from President Vladimir Putin to use military force abroad. Putin appealed to the Parliament after a request from Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for military assistance.

According to the Kremlin, the military operation was launched in full accordance with the principles of international law while anti-ISIL efforts by the US, France and Australia were not approved by the UN Security Council or requested by the government involved.

"The Russian engagement in Syria is aimed only at defending country's national interests but not at pursuing any foreign policy goals or ambitions," presidential aide Sergei Ivanov underscored.

Putin in his turn reaffirmed that Russia will only provide aerial support for Assad forces and the operation will not be long.

According to Kommersant, the Russian Air and Space Forces deployed a composite air group at the Hmeimim airbase, near Latakia. According to a military command source, the group comprised Su-24M and Su-34 tactical bombers, Su-25SM attack jets, and Su-30SM multirole fighters. The unit also received Mi-24 attack helicopters and Mi-8 multirole helicopters.

According to the source, the deployment was conducted amid the Center-2015 military exercise (September 14-20) and a snap check of combat readiness in the Central Military District (September 7-12).

Later on Wednesday, the Defense Ministry reported that Russian jets conducted nearly 20 flights and carried out precision strikes at eight ISIL targets in mountain areas, including ammunition and fuel depots, heavy military hardware, communication facilities, and transport vehicles.

Worldwide reaction to the Russian airstrikes in Syria was not slow in coming. In whole, the West and regional nations were suspicious in their comments.

US State Secretary John Kerry told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that the airstrikes contradicted Moscow's commitment to the settlement of the conflict. The White House explained it would support Russia's actions if they are against ISIL but not targeting the Syrian opposition and political rivals of the regime.

In turn, the Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia told that it would be better that Russia joins the US-led coalition in Syria. Riyadh also reaffirmed its commitment to the regime change in Syria, especially via democratic mechanisms.

Paris does not support Russia's stance on the Syrian conflict but would continue dialogue with Moscow, French Foreign Minister Manuel Valls said.

"I'm not surprised with Russia's engagement in Syria. But it should be against ISIL, not to support Assad," former French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine was quoted as saying by the newspaper.

Before the operation kicked off Russia had officially notified its foreign partners of the plan, including Britain, India, the US, and Turkey.

Iraq and Iran welcomed the Russian airstrikes against ISIL in Syria. Representatives of the Syrian opposition were of mixed opinions on the purposefulness and effectiveness of Russian airstrikes conducted beyond any international coalition, Kommersant added.

Russian and foreign experts told the newspaper that now there are two scenarios – defensive and offensive – for its further actions in Syria.


The defensive scenario is that Russian forces would help the Syrian army to retain control over the Mediterranean coastal area and neighboring areas. The region is home for the Alawites, the main supporters of Assad's government. There are also the important ports of Latakia and Tartus in the region. Russia could help the Syrian army to defend those areas from Islamists and retain control of the so-called "useful Syria" – heavily populated and industrialized areas of the country, including Damascus and its neighboring areas, the Lebanon border Homs and the coastal region.

The offensive scenario, as experts said, could be carried out alongside with the defensive one. It would be more risky for Russia but at the same time more beneficial for its reputation in the world arena, especially in comparison with the futile efforts by the US-led coalition to defeat ISIL. For example, Russian forces would make an attempt to retake the ancient city of Palmira badly damaged by ISIL militants. However, the cost and implications of such an offensive can hardly be predicted, Kommersant reported citing experts