Possible Conflicts Following Syrian Stabilization

[MikeWB]

Found this on /pol/ .. it's an interesting list.


Possible Conflicts Following Syrian Stabilization:

Europe

Conflict in Narva, Estonia over attacks on Russian speaking Estonians

Conflict between Russia and nations surrounding the Arctic (Finland, Norway, Greenland/Denmark)

Colour Revoluton in Moldova

Colour Revolution in Macedonia

Colour Revolution in Montenegro (all the above in favour of joining NATO)

Greece - Syriza becomes unpopular due to passing the ECB's cuts, gets forced out of power by the EU/USA/IMF with the assistance of the far-right

Hungary - Fidesz and Jobbik eventually do a deal to go into coalition, effectively becoming first post-war far right state in Europe. EU keen to "make an example of them" to prevent....

Sweden - Possible Sweden Democrats victory or good showing at election triggers political violence, low-scale civil war.

France - Like Sweden but with Marine Le Pen, National Front gets majority of deputies in 2017 but she doesn't win the presidency, Sarkozy, Hollande and Valls win and have to govern with a NF Prime Minister.

Portugal - election of far-left coalition refused to take office by the President on the orders of the EU, possible unrest but also influences

Spain - Current polling has the Podemos lot down to 10-15% (which was what United Left were polling pre-Podemos btw) partially down to Greece being smashed by the troika. Will the EU suspend democracy in Spain as well as Portugal if the Left looks close to winning?

Ireland/UK - Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness becomes first minister of Northern Ireland, Gerry Adams becomes Taoiseach of the Dail in Ireland, on the 100th anniversary of the Easter Rising call for a referendum on re-unification. Peace Process breaks down, Good Friday Agreement scrapped, Loyalists go beserk in Belfast and the British Army is called in to "restore order" and David Cameron's conservatives try to play it as their "Falklands" moment but it rapidly backfires.

Scotland becomes indepedent (see Ireland).

Middle-East and North Africa

Renewed protests against Al-Sisi in Egypt, Arab Spring redux (ISIS edition)

UN-mandated Libyan peace talks break down, 4-way civil war dogfiht between Tripoli Govt (Libyan Dawn), Tobruk govt (pro-Wester), ISIS (Sirte) and General Hafter (rogue CIA agent)

Tunisian government collapses due to high unemployment following attacks on tourists

Iran blocks the Straits of Hormuz and the Al-Mandeeb straits to cut off Saudi oil exports and helps jack the price of oil up to A zillion dollars a barrell

Shia muslims in Saudi, Bahrain and Kuwait launch all-out assault against their respective governments.

Turkey becomes more like Syria with every passing day. Erdogan declares state of emergency, calls of November Elections, bans all non-Islamist political parties and institutes martial law. Rules as dictator, invades Syria and begins to comprehensively wipe out the Kurds.

Israel continues to head towards a third intifada, but over time drops any pretence of a peace process and becomes engaged in outright ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Israel becomes even more internationally isolated, and the siege mentality gets worse.

Africa

Sudanese conflict reignites

Eritrean/Ethopian War restarts

Somalia gets oft-mooted US intervention treatment

Civil war between ethnic groups in Kenya

Nigeria break up into ethno-tribal statelets

Mali has a renewed round of fighting with the Touregs

South Africa - rising leftist insurgencent parties along with strikes and protests, coupled with political conflict between the Zulu's and the ANC, could damage the "tripartite alliance" and see spilts within the government leading to civil war.

South America

Venezuela civil war, war with Guyana and/or Colombia acting as US proxies.

Mexico continues to disintegrate as a functioning state, cartels consolidate political power, civil war

Argentina goes to war with Britain over the Falklands (longshot)

Raul Castro dies, civil war in Cuba between communists and US-backed opposition forces (longshot).

Brazil reforms judicial and legislative departments, enforcing a cleansing of drug related businesses (longshot)

East Asia and Australia

Indonesia restarts it's campaign in Aceh, more senseless killing

Chinese tensions with neighbours in South China Sea, over Japanese Islands, and status of Hong Kong

North Korea - could go apeshit with South Korea, alternatively the regime might just collapse on itself with short notice.

Thailand gets locked into yet another cycle of civil war between monarchists and modernisers

Burmese government continues with it's campaign against Rohingya muslims, loses international support, things go from bad to worse.