François Fillon on course for Thatcherite victory in French Right presidential p

[MikeWB]

26 NOVEMBER 2016 • 7:44PM
France is expected to elect its first truly Thatcherite leader of the Right on Sunday, with François Fillon in pole position to take on an ebullient far-Right Front National.

Seen as a no-hoper even a month ago, one last-minute poll sees Mr Fillon, a former prime minister, winning the presidential primary nomination for his Republicans party with 61 per cent of the vote against 39 per cent for his older, more moderate rival, Alain Juppé.

The race has attracted huge interest in France, drawing four million voters to the polls in the first round, because the winner stands a high chance as things stand of becoming French president next year in a run-off against FN leader Marine Le Pen.

France presidential elections | François Fillon
At his final rally in Paris on Friday, up to 10,000 flag-waving Fillon supporters roared as they were told France "everything must change so that everything can remain the same".

The quote perhaps best sums up the "tornado" of support, as he called it, for the 62-year-old whose Welsh wife Penelope was beaming from the front row.

A Fillon victory could usher in what some are calling a "Conservative revolution" via a Gallic brand of Thatcherism mixing economic liberalism with social conservatism the likes of which France has never seen.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president under whom Mr Fillon served as brow-beaten prime minister, was knocked out in a shock first round result after a checkered first mandate from 2007 to 2012.

Marine Le Pen in 90 secondsWatch | Marine Le Pen in 90 seconds
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If anyone was in doubt as to who now calls the shots, Mr Fillon boomed: "I don't walk in the shade." Crucially, he has enticed a normally discreet part of the French electorate – the ageing, socially conservative bourgeoisie from its provinces – to take an interest in the debate.

The father of five from the rural Sarthe in western France has has spoken out for the same traditional, Catholic family values that sparked mass protests against gay marriage legislation in 2013.

He is in some ways reminiscent of of Mrs Thatcher. We know we're going to go through tough moments
Mr Fillon's former classmate
He has declared himself against multiculturalism, and on Friday demanded that "the Islamic religion accept what all the others have accepted in the past... that radicalism and provocation have no place here".

Put simply, Patrick, 68, a retired construction manager at Friday's rally, said: "Fillon defends the values of la France profonde: family, work, religion and freedom."

Almost half of those who backed him last Sunday were retirees and a third were high-earning executives, according to an Elabe survey. Sixty per cent came from provincial towns, and the same proportion were men.

They appear ready to break with France's statist tradition to try out Mr Fillon's unabashed free-market programme, provided he takes on the unions and restores France's international standing.

He has pledged to slash half a million state sector jobs, jettison the 35-hour week and pay "fonctionnaires" 37 hours for working 39 – measures his rival calls "brutal" and unworkable.

Profile | Marine Le Pen
Antoine Lescop, 63, an art expert from the Sarthe who was Mr Fillon's classmate at a Jesuit school, said: "He is in some ways reminiscent of of Mrs Thatcher.

"We know we're going to go through tough moments. When he takes these measures, there will undoubtedly be strikes, street protests, and it's up to us to accept this and support him. He mustn't give in."

[A Fillion win] would limit the ability of Marine Le Pen to make progress among the Right-wing electorate
Patrick Buisson, electoral analyst
While Mr Sarkozy had a crack at reforms, Mr Lescop said this time France is ripe for change after five years of listless Socialist rule under François Hollande that has seen unemployment and public debt surge.

"I think there is an awareness not present five years ago that we are really on the edge of the abyss," said Mr Lescop.

"Mr Juppé is offering hot water and no waves. Fillon realises now's the time to step on the accelerator and go for it. It's never good to be right too early, but I think that the French are ready to make this effort."

He was attracted, he says, to the politician's plan to ban medically assisted procreation for lesbians and to restrict homosexuals' adoption rights.

"We were almost made to feel under the Socialists that having a traditional family and children was bad."

Patrick Buisson, seen as one of France's canniest electoral analysts and the man Mr Sarkozy said "won" him his 2007 presidency before the pair spectacular fell out, said a Fillon victory would be a sea change for the French Right.

"This is very clearly a Conservative vote and there haven't been many in France," he said. "Maurice Druon, a former culture minister, was in the habit of saying that France has two Left-wing parties, one of which is called the Right," he told the Telegraph.

This "French anomaly" epitomised by the presidency of Jacques Chirac is "coming to a close." Mr Sarkozy paved the way for a less inhibited Right, but Mr Fillon is "tapping into this ideological victory in a much less vulgar, trivial and populist way," he said.

For this reason, a Fillon win would be "bad news" for the far-Right, which has traditionally made hay over themes of national identity, social conservatism and immigration.

"It would limit the ability of Marine Le Pen to make progress among the Right-wing electorate and that is a major development," he said.