"U.S. recession likely over by end of summer: ECRI"

[evanlong]

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The longest U.S. recession in more than a half-century will probably end before the summer is out, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute." - http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE53T5BL20090430

"The end of this recession – the most severe downturn since World War II – is finally in sight. This is the clear message from ECRI's array of leading indexes of the U.S. economy." - http://www.businesscycle.com/ (ECRI's web site)

"About ECRI  [...]  ECRI is an independent institute dedicated to economic cycle research in the tradition established by its founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called "the father of leading indicators." Our mission is to advance the tradition of business cycle research established at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR). When Moore passed away in 2000, his former student, Alan Greenspan, called him "a major force in economic statistics and business cycle research for more than a half-century."

Following in the footsteps of his mentors, Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns, Moore developed the first list of leading indicators of recession and recovery in 1950, the composite index method in 1958, and the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI) in 1967. Today, ECRI represents the third generation of researchers carrying on this tradition of cyclical investigation. Standing on the shoulders of these giants, we have refined the scope and accuracy of cyclical forecasting tools to the point where ECRI can reliably predict the timing of cyclical turns." - http://www.businesscycle.com/about/

[Wimpy]

The only response to this report is personal and anecdotal.  Living in FL, USA and working in technical sales I travel around visiting industries, hospitals and government facilities.

Industrial production, depending whether one is producing consumer or construction related products, is down anywhere from 20% to 80%.  The lower figure would represent food related producers and the higher represents construction products and automotive sub contractors.

Hospitals in my area have cut budgets for capital improvements and maintenance by 50%.  Government spending, except for military hardware manufacturers (one is actually hiring), appears to be off by at least 50%.  This would include Municipal and County water and waste water facilities, infrastructure maintenance and aerospace.

I see the trend getting worse by Summers end; not turning around.  This conclusion of mine could be due to my myopic area of expertise or just plain sour grapes as I am about to be 'laid-off'.


Wimpy

[evanlong]

The only response to this report is personal and anecdotal. Living in FL, USA and working in technical sales I travel around visiting industries, hospitals and government facilities.

Industrial production, depending whether one is producing consumer or construction related products, is down anywhere from 20% to 80%. The lower figure would represent food related producers and the higher represents construction products and automotive sub contractors.

Hospitals in my area have cut budgets for capital improvements and maintenance by 50%. Government spending, except for military hardware manufacturers (one is actually hiring), appears to be off by at least 50%. This would include Municipal and County water and waste water facilities, infrastructure maintenance and aerospace.

I see the trend getting worse by Summers end; not turning around. This conclusion of mine could be due to my myopic area of expertise or just plain sour grapes as I am about to be 'laid-off'.

Everything else I've heard from sources I consider trustworthy indicates that the Summer would be the beginning of the real meltdown also but I'm interested in hearing what anyone knows about ECRI and their reports as apparently, they are high-profile and their subscribers pay to receive analysis such what I quoted from their web site above.  Any technical rebuttals would be valued as well.

Also, sorry to hear about your lay-off; do you have a backup plan?

[Wimpy]

.[/quote]

Everything else I've heard from sources I consider trustworthy indicates that the Summer would be the beginning of the real meltdown also but I'm interested in hearing what anyone knows about ECRI and their reports as apparently, they are high-profile and their subscribers pay to receive analysis such what I quoted from their web site above.  Any technical rebuttals would be valued as well.

Also, sorry to hear about your lay-off; do you have a backup plan?[/quote]

Thank you for the kind sentiment.  As for a back up plan;....yes.

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

This is part of the "Stimulus" money dump soaking into the real economy.  The Corrupt Derivatives game continues unabated.  They likely just reprogrammed their trading strategies with the Jew Geithner's promise to cover all bets.  The game is on until someone is called again.  Then it could collapse again like a house of cards. The Financial economy has very little connection to the real economy on the way up, it is only on the way down does the blood have to pulled out from the Goyim's labor.