Britain faces 75,000 deaths in bird flu pandemic, Lords report predicts

[TriWooOx]

Up to 75,000 Britons will in die in an "inevitable" flu pandemic that could kill as many as 50 million people worldwide, a parliamentary committee warns today.

The outbreak, most likely to be caused by a strain of bird flu, will be on a scale not seen for 40 years and cause "massive" disruption in the UK.

The committee report (click for PDF) warns that surveillance of emerging disease threats around the world needs to be overhauled to provide early warning of potential pandemics.

A new and potentially deadly infectious disease emerges somewhere in the world every year, threatening "devastating consequences" across the globe, warns the Lords intergovernmental organisations committee. Its report, published today, criticises Britain's "poorly coordinated" disease control systems.

Reform of the World Health Organisation (WHO) is "essential", as the global health agency is "dysfunctional" and lacking the organisation and resources to curb a major outbreak, it says.

The committee calls for new international disease surveillance systems in developing countries. The report says peers were given the following "sobering" advice by government ministers: "While there has not been a pandemic since 1968, another one is inevitable ... Estimates are that the next pandemic will kill between 2 million and 50 million people worldwide and between 50,000 and 75,000 in the UK. Socio-economic disruption will be massive."

Three-quarters of new human diseases originate from animals, but experts have warned they are currently only identified after people are infected. The committee chairman, Lord Soley, said: "The last 100 years have seen great advances in public health and disease control through the world, but globalisation and changes in lifestyles are giving rise to new infections and providing opportunities for them to spread rapidly.

"We are particularly concerned about the link with animal health."

The last two flu pandemics, in 1958 and 1968, were caused by relatively mild strains of influenza. The report warns that the next could be far more serious, particularly if it comes from the H5N1 strain found in wild birds and poultry that has already infected some humans.

The report predicts more widespread human-to-human transmission soon.

When bird flu H5N1 strains were found in Britain last year, the Department for the Environment and Rural Affairs culled 159,000 turkeys at a Bernard Matthews farm in Suffolk where the outbreak was confirmed.

Mass immunisation against H5N1 has been ruled out, but the Department of Health has stockpiled enough of the antiviral drug Tamiflu to cover a quarter of the population.

According to the WHO, 385 people around the world have been infected with H5N1 and 243 of them died. Most of these were in Asia, in communities with people living close to poultry.

Although it does not easily infect humans, every time it does the chance increases of it mutating into a form more readily transferred between people.

The most severe flu pandemic was in 1918-1919. It killed an estimated 50 million people around the world.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/ju ... ic.warning

[Anonymous]

Some have been saying it's inevitable to face another pandemic, some have been saying H5N1 doesn't have what is needed to infect humans on that scale... but all it takes is some nice engineering and voila.. a nice cocktail to go along with a WW3 and help plunge everything into more chaos...

WWIII, economic crash, bird flu... sounds great!

[sullivan]

Up to 75,000 Britons will in die in an "inevitable" flu pandemic that could kill as many as 50 million people worldwide, a parliamentary committee warns today.

Be afraid. Be very afraid. No! Seriously! Be very afraid! because if this doesn't get you, either global warming (sorry... climate change) or the terrorists will.

[Anonymous]

Well, everyone always wonders, "how will they bring about martial law"?   Quarantine would be the easiest way to get the MOST amount of people to go along with it.