Euro drops below $1.06 against dollar

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Currencies
Last updated: November 25, 2015 4:13 pm
Euro drops below $1.06 against dollar
Roger Blitz
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/adcbadb2-9374-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7af.html

  "The euro fell below a key level against the strengthening dollar,
   underlining the market's growing expectation that the world's two big
   central banks are heading in opposite monetary policy directions.
   
   Three weeks after breaking the $1.10 benchmark, the euro declined
   through $1.06 before climbing back to $1.0605. It fell 0.5 per cent to
   a seven-month low on Wednesday and in the past 30 days has dropped 7.4
   per cent.
   
   Another key benchmark, the index that measures the dollar against a
   basket of its main peers, climbed 0.4 per cent to breach the
   psychologically important 100 mark for the second time this week,
   although it fell back below that level.
   
   More
   
   ON THIS TOPIC
   Diverging policy seen as prime FX mover
   Fast FT Nowotny rumbles the euro but $1.15 remains elusive
   Euro 'spanked' after Draghi dovish on ECB
   Analysis Eurozone – The case against 'cash for reform'

   IN CURRENCIES
   Dollar-peg exporters stung by oil rout
   Turkish lira weakens and stocks fall
   EM currencies back on defensive
   Expensive Swiss franc tests central bank
   

   
   The euro's 2015 low stands at $1.0460, seen in March when the Federal
   Reserve appeared to be on the verge of raising US interest rates while
   the European Central Bank had begun buying bonds via quantitative
   easing.
   
   "This is a market that is sensitive to only one thing — monetary
   policy," said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon.
   
   With the ECB meeting next week to consider options to ease monetary
   policy further, currency strategists are gearing up for further
   downward moves on the euro-dollar rate, with the target of parity
   becoming the favoured call of many.
   
   That comes as investors anticipate the Fed will shift overnight
   borrowing costs higher for the first time in almost a decade in
   December. Futures traders are pricing in a 70 per cent probability of
   the Fed raising rates at its December 16 meeting, according to FT
   calculations.
   
   Helping to drive euro weakness against the dollar is a divergence
   between German and US bond yields. The two-year German yield fell to a
   record low of -0.41 per cent on Thursday, while its US rival stands at
   0.93 per cent, the highest level since 2010.
   
   The euro's slide below $1.06 was prompted by newswire reports that the
   ECB is planning to introduce a two-tier deposit rate system, sending
   the euro at one point down to $1.0578.
   
   Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman said that, whether or not
   ideas such as a two-tier system are adopted by the ECB, they are
   important.
   
   "They show why claims that 'it is all priced in' are misleading. The
   market does not know what the ECB will do next week. The ECB itself may
   not know," he said.
   
   The ECB introduced a negative deposit rate in June 2014. "What is
   fascinating is whether a further cut leads to a repeat of the second
   half of 2014 in establishing a rally in the dollar," said Mr Derrick.
   
   Currency analysts at Citi said further "shock and awe" on monetary
   policy from ECB president Mario Draghi was "both likely and needed".
   
   The new easing measures had to be sufficient to generate further euro
   weakness because a weaker currency was in effect becoming "the only
   game in town to stimulate monetary conditions in Europe", said the bank.
   
   Further ammunition for euro bears was provided by an ECB report voicing
   fresh concern about the impact of the slowdown in emerging markets on
   eurozone assets.
   
   
   
   RELATED TOPICS Central Banks, Federal Reserve USA, European Central Bank, Dollar
   
   FT project
   When rates rise
   
   The Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise its record-low
   interest rates for the first time in almost a decade.
   Go to hub page

   Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2015. You may share using our article tools.
   Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
   "
   
The drop of the Euro is confirmed at http://iamthewitness.com/ :



Danke Schön Fräulein Merkel !

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Merkel und die Flüchtlingskrise: Ein Putsch liegt in der Luft
von: Rüdiger Scheidges Datum: 26.11.2015 06:16 Uhr
http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/merkel-und-die-fluechtlingskrise-ein-putsch-liegt-in-der-luft/12636906.html

  "Sie gilt als mächtigste Frau der Welt – und doch muss Angela Merkel in
   der Flüchtlingskrise um ihren Posten als CDU-Chefin bangen. Denn immer
   mehr Unionspolitiker gehen offen auf Konfrontationskurs zur Kanzlerin.

   
   CSU-Parteitag im November
   Vor allem von Horst Seehofer (CSU) musste Merkel zuletzt oft schwere Kritik einstecken.
   (Foto: dpa)

   Von Washington bis Peking nennt man sie: ,,die mächtigste Frau der
   Welt". Angela Merkel, die deutsche Bundeskanzlerin, ist im
   internationalen diplomatischen Gefüge so etwas wie die völlig
   berechenbare Größe. In West wie Ost bewundern Staatsmänner ihre
   unideologische, pragmatische Art, Politik ,,vom Ende her" zu denken. Das
   Ziel steht im Vordergrund, die Mittel werden ihm untergeordnet.
   
   Doch die mächtigste Frau der Welt verliert in Deutschland rapide an
   Macht. In der Union, beileibe nicht nur in der CSU, verweigern sich
   immer mehr Partei-,,Freunde" dem Ziel der Bundeskanzlerin, humanitäre
   Verpflichtung und demografische Gegebenheiten unter einen Hut zu
   bringen. Der Chef der kleinen Schwesterpartei, Horst Seehofer, nimmt
   nicht einmal mehr Rücksicht auf die simpelsten Gepflogenheiten der
   Höflichkeit.
   
   Nach Brüssel abgesandte Parteifreunde fordern öffentlich das Gegenteil
   dessen, was Merkel als ihre Politik formuliert hat. Ministerpräsidenten
   und noch häufiger solche, die es im nächsten Jahr werden wollen,
   schlagen Flüchtlingsbegrenzungen und offenen Verfassungsbruch vor und
   verweigern sich somit demonstrativ jeder gemeinsamen politischen
   Grundlage mit der Bundeskanzlerin und Parteichefin. In
   Hintergrundgesprächen, aus denen man nicht zitieren darf, distanzieren
   sich hohe Spitzenpolitiker eindeutig von Angela Merkel.
   
   Der eigene Parteivorstand und die eigene Fraktionsführung müssen sich
   gezwungenermaßen, nolens volens, zum Schulterschluss zusammenraufen,
   damit die Dämme in der Partei nicht brechen und die mächtigste Frau der
   Welt zur vollends machtlosen machen und sie hinwegschwemmen.
   
   m Zentrum aller dieser Bestrebungen steht nichts anderes als die
   Machtfrage: Taugt diese Bundeskanzlerin dazu, den Wahlkämpfern, die im
   nächsten Jahr bei den Landtagswahlen in Ost und West und vor allem auch
   im CDU-Kernland Baden-Württemberg bestehen wollen, Rückenwind aus
   Berlin zu verschaffen?
   
   Momentan muss man das in der reinen Machtperspektive bezweifeln. Die
   Stimmen in der Union gegen Merkel werden lauter und aggressiver, die
   Ablehnung in der Bevölkerung wächst und schon sieht man die ersten
   politischen Folgen. Es wächst die Polarisierung und damit wachsen auch
   die politischen Ränder der Gesellschaft, symbolisiert derzeit vom
   Erstarken der offenkundig rechtsradikalen AfD. Die annonciert sich
   immer stärker als AfM: Alternative für Merkel.
   
   Diese AfM macht der Union Angst: Die Bayern in der Union bangen um die
   gerade wieder errungene absolute Mehrheit, so, als ob eine absolute
   Mehrheit ein unabdingbarer Ausweis für absolute Demokratie sei. Und in
   der CDU werden immer öfter Planspiele angestellt, wer denn die
   Kanzlerin beerben, also ersetzen könnte.
   
   Seite 1: Ein Putsch liegt in der Luft
   Seite 2: Kein Staat will Deutschland aus der Malaise helfen
   "

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One on One: Americans Ask Most Important Economic Questions for Jim Willie
Thursday, November 26, 2015 10:39
http://beforeitsnews.com/politics/2015/11/one-on-one-the-most-popular-user-questions-for-jim-willie-2759944.html
  "[ ... ]
    Jim Willie Thanksgiving [interview]
    http://video.beforeitsnews.com/jim-willie-thanksgiving_a4302a384.html
    [ ... ]"

Jim Willie explains how the German ECB bonds can have negative interest rates ....
Some details about this video which is a mp3 actually :

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[rmstock]

A very interesting Thanksgiving interview. The FT.com article seems to draw
a lot of thought input by leading economic commentator Martin Sandbu who
published recently the following book :


http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10564.html
Europe's Orphan: The Future of the Euro and the Politics of Debt
by Martin Sandbu
Hardcover: 336 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press (September 29, 2015)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 069116830X
ISBN-13: 978-0691168302
http://www.amazon.com/Europes-Orphan-Future-Euro-Politics/dp/069116830X

A question is asked about Martin Armstrong, forecaster and former
chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd., who was faced in 
September 1999 with prosecution by the Securities and Exchange
Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for fraud. 
During the trial, Armstrong was imprisoned for over seven years for
civil contempt of court, one of the longest-running cases of civil
contempt in American legal history.[1] In August 2006, Armstrong 
pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, and began a
five-year sentence.[2] Jim Willie says, well this guy is brilliant but
was almost beaten to death in prison. It would not surprise me if
Armstrong has been coerced to adjust his forecasting capabilities.
In 2014 a documentary The Forecaster was released about this.
Willie tells he himself  was threathened with his life twice in 2006.

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FT.com presented the following graph :

and as you see the weakest kid on the block for 2015 is Brasil. Then this week the
following Reuters financial report with numerous UPDATES was brought out :

Bonds | Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:32pm EST
Related: Stocks, Currencies, Regulatory News, Bonds
UPDATE 7-Brazil corruption probe widens; Senate leader, BTG Pactual CEO arrested
* Top court orders arrests for obstructing probe
* Shares drop as much as 39 pct; bonds tumble
* Amaral is ruling party's leader in the Senate
* Clients withdraw funds from BTG (Adds that Senate upheld court decision to arrest Amaral)
By Guillermo Parra-Bernal and Leonardo Goy
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/26/brazil-arrests-idUSL1N13K0F220151126

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Coming monday Jan 18, aka Black King birthday, the final collapse is about to happen.

[yankeedoodle]

Coming monday Jan 18, aka Black King birthday, the final collapse is about to happen.

Correction.  Martin Luther King's birthday is January 15th. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Luther_King,_Jr.

The official holiday - i.e., the day off work - takes place on the nearest Monday, so people have a 3-day weekend.  This year, that day falls on Monday, January 18th.  (Queen Elizabeth has an official birthday, which is different from her actual birthday.)

January 18th, however, is Yankee Doodle's  birthday.   

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It seems that all is well again.