Front National's election triumph leaves mainstream parties reeling

[MikeWB]

Good luck Marine!



Front National's election triumph leaves mainstream parties reeling

French mainstream politicians have struggled to come up with a response to what one analyst described as the "major hangover" of a historic victory by the Front National in the first round of regional elections.

While the far-right had been predicted to do well, the FN's record score of almost 28% of the national vote and first place in six of the country's 13 regions by Sunday night left the traditional parties reeling.

The governing Socialist party came third as expected, but analysts agreed on Monday that the main loser was the centre-right opposition party Les Républicains, led by the former president Nicolas Sarkozy.

The Socialists announced they would withdraw their candidates in regions where the party was trailing and urge supporters to vote tactically to form a "Republican front" to see off the Front National in the second round this coming Sunday.

But the instruction issued by the party headquarters in Paris was defied by the Socialist candidate in the Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine region, who came third but announced he would stand for the second round anyway.
Jean-Pierre Masseret, who scored 16% against 36% for the Front National frontrunner and 25% for the centre-right candidate, told journalists: "I am not withdrawing ... it is necessary to offer a democratic choice."
He added: "Voters from the left have the right to be represented. It is by confronting the FN that we will push it back, not by avoiding it. Avoidance has always benefited the FN."
Les Républicains, which came third in only one region, ruled out any alliances. Sarkozy said he understood the "profound exasperation" of the French people but declared there would be "no mergers and no withdrawals". He said: "Clarity and constancy are the only political choice."

The "ni-ni" (neither-nor) approach, as it is known, sparked criticism of Sarkozy, who hopes to be the Republicans' candidate in the 2017 presidential elections. The former French prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin told Europe 1 radio: "The republic is in the process of collapsing. That's why we need clear messages: when you're third, you should pull out."

Despite rumours of a split, however, there was a semblance of unity at a crisis meeting of the party's political leadership on Monday when Republican heavyweights approved the tactic. Some feared that doing deals with the Socialists would boost the FN, which has taken to deliberately conflating the two main parties with the acronym UMPS (Les Républicains was formerly the UMP) to suggest there is little difference in their politics.

In any case, figures show that political alliances might still fail to prevent the FN from winning control in certain strongholds including Nord-Pas de Calais-Picardie in the north, where the party's leader, Marine Le Pen, won more than 40% of the vote, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur in the south, where her niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen performed equally well.

The winners of the first-round vote
An opinion poll in Le Parisien on Monday suggested the Republicans and their centre-right allies, including the centrist MoDem party, would poll 59% of the vote in the second round, against 41% for the FN. However, the FN has a good chance of winning at least two regions, chiefly the Nord-Pas de Calais-Picardie region, which includes Calais, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.

"The FN's incredible scores are the people revolting against the elites," Le Pen told RTL radio. She claimed that the FN was "France's first party" after its triumph.
While European newspapers expressed astonishment at the FN's success, there was little reaction from foreign leaders apart from Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, who issued a warning on his Facebook page that it was only a matter of time before "populist movements" controlled a country.

"Europe must change," he wrote. "I believe it is time for European institutions to take a look at the hard truth: you can't survive only on tactics. Without a strategic design, particularly on the economy and on growth, populist movements will sooner or later prevail also in general elections.
"Not in Italy. In Italy we are successful because reforms are bearing fruits. Most Italians are on the side of those who want change, not on that of those who just complain. I am therefore not worried about Italy.

"But I am very worried about Europe. If Europe does not change its course now, European institutions risk becoming (knowingly or not) the best allies of Marine Le Pen and of those who try to imitate her."

Opinion polls suggest France's stubbornly high rate of unemployment and economic concerns were the main reasons for people voting FN. However, three weeks after the terrorist attacks in Paris that left 130 dead, others cited concerns about security and immigration.
In 2010 the FN scored about 11% of the national vote in the regional elections. Support for the FN has risen steadily since 2011 when Le Pen took control of the party from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and set out to shed its racist and xenophobic image.

She and her father, who founded the party, have since embarked on a bitter feud. In May Le Pen Sr was suspended as honorary president of the party after falling out with his daughter over remarks about the Holocaust, when he repeated his view that the Nazi gas chambers were just a "detail" of the second world war and said he had never considered Marshal Philippe Pétain, leader of the collaborationist Vichy government, "a traitor". He was expelled from the party in August.

On Monday Le Parisien's front page carried pictures of the victorious Marine Le Pen, Marechal-Le Pen and the FN deputy Florian Philippot, with the headline: "The FN at the gates of power."

[MikeWB]

Front National's historic result should be a wake up call to the EU

The president of the French far-right Front National party Marine Le Pen reacts after the announcement of the results of first round of the regional election in the Nord Picardie region
The result obtained by Front National in the first round of the French regional election is nothing short of historic. Marine Le Pen's party finished in the lead, winning nearly 28 per cent of the nationwide vote – its highest score ever. Front National candidates topped the polls in six out of thirteen French mainland regions, outperforming both Nicolas Sarkozy's centre-right alliance and President François Hollande's Socialist Party.

"It would be simplistic to see the gains made by Front National as just the fruit of French voters' knee-jerk reaction to last month's tragic events"
Nothing is decided yet. The second, decisive round of this regional election will take place next Sunday – and voters' behaviour can change between the two rounds. However, Front National does really look close to a breakthrough. The party has never governed a French region. Securing control of even just one of them would already be an unprecedented achievement.

Significantly, the gains made by Front National cut across all types of regions – from the wealthy French Riviera to rural Burgundy. The industrial Northern region (now merged with Picardy), where Marine Le Pen herself is standing as candidate and won over 40 per cent of the vote in the first round, has been a stronghold of the Left since direct election of regional assemblies in France began in the 1980s.

Generally speaking, France remains a centralised state. Notwithstanding a recent territorial reform that has expanded their competences, French regions continue to have relatively limited powers compared to, for instance, their Spanish counterparts. However, a strong showing in this regional election would allow Le Pen to strengthen her local powerbase with a view to the Presidential election in 2017.

This regional election was indeed the first test after the terrorist attacks in Paris. However, it would be simplistic to see the gains made by Front National as just the fruit of French voters' knee-jerk reaction to last month's tragic events. President Hollande saw a rather spectacular rebound in his approval rating in the wake of the attacks. Yet, this did not spare him another pretty disappointing election night.

The reality is that Front National has been on a crescendo for a while. The party was the most voted for in last year's European Parliament election, and had also made important gains in the departmental elections earlier this year. Ballot after ballot, my view is reinforced that a growing number of French voters are starting to see Front National no longer as just a "protest party" – but rather as a party they would be happy to be governed by, at least at the local level.

There are several reasons behind the surge of Front National – and dissatisfaction with Europe is one of them. According to the European Commission's latest Eurobarometer survey, only 32 per cent of French trust the EU – compared to 51 per cent who do not. Given that Front National is far from an isolated case – anti-euro, anti-EU and anti-establishment parties are on the rise pretty much everywhere in Europe – one of the key lessons from this French regional election is that sweeping reform of the EU cannot wait any longer.

"If voters are always presented with a binary choice between 'more Europe' and 'no Europe', the moment will come when they will choose the latter"
It is therefore in the interest of Europe as a whole to listen to David Cameron's EU reform demands.

Remember: in her own words, Le Pen wants France to recover its "territorial, monetary, legislative and economic" sovereignty – in a fashion that effectively would mean the end of the EU entirely. Cameron is bringing to the table a pragmatic third way between "more Europe" and "no Europe" – something other EU leaders can hardly afford to ignore.

Slimming down EU bureaucracy, speeding up single market liberalisation, reducing the burden of EU regulation on businesses, giving groups of national parliaments the power to scrap unnecessary EU laws – these and other changes being proposed by the British Prime Minister can help win back voters' support by making the EU more efficient and accountable. Conversely, repeating ad nauseam that "more Europe" is the solution to any problem, or that Europe "cannot pander to populists", carries a significant risk.

If voters are always presented with a binary choice between "more Europe" and "no Europe", the moment will come when they will choose the latter – essentially throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

This French regional election was not the first wake-up call – and will not be the last. Europe would do well to begin paying attention.

Vincenzo Scarpetta is a political analyst at Open Europe

"Islamist fundamentalism must be annihilated, France must ban Islamist organizations, close radical mosques and expel foreigners who preach hatred in our country as well as illegal migrants who have nothing to do here" - Marine after the Paris attacks, January 2015
"The progressive Islamisation of our country and the increase in political-religious demands are calling into question the survival of our civilisation." - Marine in a 2010 interview with the Telegraph
"My head is still on my shoulders." Jean-Marie after a disciplinary hearing. He was expelled from the party hours later, August 2015.
"Gas chambers were a detail of the war, unless we accept that the war is a detail of the gas chambers." - Jean-Marie on television in April 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12037157/Front-Nationals-historic-result-should-be-a-wake-up-call-to-the-EU.html