Google Predicts Landslide Win for Brexit Leave

[rmstock]

SR 966 – Google Predicts Landslide Win for Brexit Leave
by Bill Still , Published on Jun 22, 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPddalZHbR4

[yankeedoodle]

This appears to be a contemporary - i.e., yesterday - report, but the Google survey he cites at the beginning was for May 31 - June 7, which is prior to the Jo Cox hoax.

Don't doubt that the survey, at the time, was correct, or that Brexit might still be favored, but it's curious that he would lead with such an out-of-date survey.  But, of course, it allows him to be a little deceptive by opening his "report" with the word "landslide."

[MikeWB]

I hope UK manages to leave. I'm less and less confident though.

[Ognir]

[tweet]746086486186012672[/tweet]

[MikeWB]

EU referendum rolling forecasts

02:08 Fourth forecast update

This is a big update, and I'm conscious that I may have made a terrible mistake somewhere in estimating differential turnout, but here goes:

    * Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
    * (33 of 382 areas reporting.)
    * Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
    * (90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

01:46 Third forecast update

    * Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.32
    * (15 of 382 areas reporting.)
    * Predicted vote share for Remain: 48.9 percent.
    * (90% prediction interval: 44.5 to 53.3 percent)

01:17 Second forecast update

    * Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.55
    * (10 of 382 areas reporting.)
    * Predicted vote share for Remain: 50.2 percent.
    * (90% prediction interval: 45.1 to 54.9 percent)

Best not to read too much in the probability when that predicted vote share is so close to 50:50.

01:06 In between forecasts

We're at a bit of a lull in the results. There are a couple of results not yet included in the forecast, but we'll hold off a little while before the next update.

So far the results have been better than expected for Leave. However, it's not yet clear whether this is because Leave is doing better everywhere, or because Leave is doing better in areas which (with the exception of Newcastle) Leave was already expected to do well.

00:19 First forecast update

    * Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.48
    * (5 of 382 areas reporting.)
    * Predicted vote share for Remain: 49.8 percent.
    * (90% prediction interval: 42.7 to 56.8 percent)

23:39 Gibraltar

Remain win 96% of the vote in Gibraltar — but we'll hold off updating our forecast.

23:33 What do the betting markets say?

Some stats from Betfair:

    * Implied probability of Remain vote: 88.7%
    * Implied probability of Remain vote > 52.5%: 69%
    * Implied probability of Remain vote > 54.5%: 48%

23:09 Our baseline

Our baseline is the following:

    * Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.52
    * Predicted vote share for Remain: 50.5 percent.
    * (90% prediction interval: 41.4 to 59.9 percent)

Which is near enough a tie, give or take Monte Carlo error and a bit of fun with variable turnout. You might think that's been overtaken by events (or recent polls), but we'll be trying to keep these predictions based as much as possible on the results.

22:51 Our forecast model

We'll be basing these forecasts on a model of how each area will vote. This model is based on some preparatory work done by Chris (discussed here and here, though some of these have been subsequently adjusted slightly), which gives us estimates of how each area would vote in a tied referendum. Using these estimates, we can adjust our estimates of how well each side is doing as the results come in. We needn't wait for a large number of results before we can come out with some informed guesses about the outcome.

(Technical details: this is a linear regression with a single intercept and a single predictor, namely the local authority estimates. There are informative priors on both intercept and predictor variables. You can find a writeup of a similar model I did for the Scottish independence referendum here).

22:42 What we hope to give you throughout the night

Over the course of tonight, we'll be providing rolling forecasts of the probability that Britain will stay in the European Union, and our best guess as to the share of the vote won by the Remain option.

We'll also be providing a 90% forecast interval of the share of the vote won by Remain. That interval will start of large, and get narrower as the evening progresses. You'll want to bear that in mind throughout.

https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55

[MikeWB]

Leave has 51.3% of the current vote...

we'll see how it goes... lots of votes left to count.

[MikeWB]

This site has odds that update every minute:  https://electionbettingodds.com/brexit.html

[yankeedoodle]

This site has odds that update every minute:  https://electionbettingodds.com/brexit.html

Trouble is, Mike, is that this site shows big odds on a Brexit win, but, it also shows equally big odds on a Clinton win.

[MikeWB]

If Brexit wins, Trump will have a much better chance of winning.

It's basically populism vs globalism.. on both sides of the Atlantic. People are just fed up with political class and loss of jobs and rich just getting richer.