Gilad Atzmon's brilliant analysis of what's going on in Israhell

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Israeli Gaza strategy for beginners

In 2006 the IDF was destroyed in Lebanon. It was caught unprepared, untrained, lacking elementary imagination, creativity, the necessary leadership qualities etc. The Israeli army was humiliated by the Hezbollah and eventually ran for its life. Once the war was over an Israeli commission of inquiry was formed to probe the IDF malfunctioning. The IDF chief of staff, Dan Halutz, resigned before the commission published its findings.

But the war in South Lebanon was only one part of the IDF's 2006 campaign. The IDF chief of staff, himself a former commender of the Israeli airforce, launched a simultaneous devastating as well as reckless indiscriminate bombardment of the the Dahieh quarter of Beirut, the home for tens of thousands of Shia Lebanese in the capitol. The Israeli airforce literally flattened neighbourhoods in Beirut killing thousands of civilians and also destroying the country's infrastructure. Years later, Dan Halutz, argued, to a certain extent correctly, that despite him portrayed by the Israeli media as a total military failure, time proved that his doctrine actually worked. The Hezbollah, according to him, has been deterred and refrained from attacking Israel's central urban centers since 2006. The Hezbollah according the Halutz was practically restrained by the Lebanese public.

In 2023 Israel exercises once again the Halutz' doctrine. It targets Palestinian civilians using the Airforce and artillery deploying indiscriminate killing. So far israel has killed more than 20 thousand civilians most of them children, women, elders. It turned half of Gaza into dust. The IDF ground operation is obviously a military failure, 81 days in it didn't achieve any of its objectives. Not even close. Yet the ground operation is merely a smoke screen. Israel knows that it can't topple the Hamas. It may kill its leaders and a few high rank commanders but those will be replaced immediately by others who are more radical and determined.

If I am correct here, the Israeli so called military objectives (ie eradicating Hamas militarily and politically) are just a facade. They are there to divert the attention from the most obvious fact: Israel actually targets Gaza civilians.

What Israel is doing in Gaza right now is an attempt to bring the Gaza people on their knees so in the future it will 'hopefully be them' who restrain Hamas in the fashion Lebanese public has been restraining the Hezbollah.

If I am correct here, the Israeli soldiers who died in Gaza so far and the thousands who are severely wounded basically were sacrificed by their government in an attempt to divert the attention from the indiscriminate destruction of the Gaza civilisation.

But life isn't perfect as they say, especially for Israel. The Hezbollah indeed, didn't attack Israel's metropolitan centres for almost 2 decades but it has built the military and especially ballistic ability to flatten Israel cities and beyond. Israel knows it and is terrified of the prospect of a confrontation with the Hezbollah. In practice, it is the Hezbollah that actually deters Israel.

In the south, Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, understands Israel way better than Israel understands itself. He can see the Israeli plans. He can see the Halutz' doctrine being deployed against his people. He takes his time, he rejects ceasefire deals that do not fit with Hamas' objectives: the complete stop of the war, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an immediate end of the siege.

Sinwar skilfully controls the Israeli collective psychological mode. He knows how fragile the Israelis are politically, socially, politically and economically . He knows how fragile Netanyahu's government is. He seems to be at least one step ahead of Israel, its military and government on, pretty much, every development and move.

Israeli strategy is indeed brutal, but it is counter effective. The Israeli nightmare scenario of a regional war is pretty much inevitable by now. The only way to prevent it, is by Israel leadership coming to its senses accepting that there is no way to survive in the region living on the sword, but such an Israeli acknowledgment is unrealistic considering Netanyahu's government and the rest of Israel political class. In fact all signs suggest that Israel is doing whatever it can to start that 'final' war against the entire region.

You ask why? Maybe because Netanyahu knows that there is no 'day after' for him. It looks to me as if Netanyahu is determined to go down in history as Samson 2.0....

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Who are the Eternal Folk?

In the days following the 7 October. Israel wanted to believe that it is united. Slogan such as "together we win" were repeated by the media 24/7. The Israelis started to refer to themselves as the "the eternal folk" (עם הנצח).

But things have changed since then. The 'togetherness' facade hasn't held for too long.

Yesterday we learned that Israel's Internal Security Agency (Shabak) chief announced that the commander of the IDF Central Command is guarded closely following some immanent threats to assassinate him made by some radical West Bank Settlers.

Israeli media reports on a serious rift between PM Netanyahu and his Defence Minister. The PM , according to the press, prevents his defence minister from meeting with the Mossad and Shabak alone.

The Chief of Staff was subject to security scrutiny 2 weeks ago ahead of a cabinet meeting. Security looked for recording equipment. The Israeli decision making class doesn't trust each other. They know that a witch-hunt will commence the day after the war ends assuming that such a day isn't a mere optimistic fantasy.

The Families of the Israeli hostages are not delusional. They see that the IDF hasn't managed to bring a single hostage back alive since the beginning of the ground operation. They see that the government isn't serious about bringing back their beloved. They also know that their captured family members who are still alive are at severe risk not by Hamas but by reckless IDF bombardments. They are upset with the government and the IDF and for a good reason.

Some right wing zealots are actually very upset by the hostages families. They believe that their campaign for POW exchange interferes with the Israeli war efforts. More than often the hostages families have been subject to abuse from right wing activists.

There is one brave Israeli veteran general who is also very intelligent, no doubt a rare combination worldwide. His name is Itzchak Brik. Brik had been arguing for years that Israel is about to be caught unprepared. He argued that the IDF ground forces are lacking equipment, strategy, training and elementary skills. He predicted accurately the nature of the emerging regional conflict. After 7 October Brik warned Netanyahu that the ground forces aren't ready to accomplish the objectives set by the government. Brink's predictions were spot on. The IDF southern front was destroyed by Hamas on 7 October. More significant is the fact that the current ground operation in Gaza is a total disaster. Brik has been pointing out in the last few days that the ground operation is a failure on every possible level. The Israeli soldiers don't see the enemy, they are just subject to its punishment. Yet, instead of praising or thanking Brik for his prophetic and analytical skills, in the Israeli 'free' media he is presented now as a delusional character and even accused by some of treason.

Israel is imploding for many reasons. Maybe because it lacks the prospect of a future living in the region. Maybe because it lacks the means to execute its barbaric whims. Maybe because rivalry, both internally and externally, is inherent to Jewish culture and politics.

Zionism in its early days vowed to emancipate the Jews and make them courageous authentic people connected to the soil. But a century later it is actually the indigenous people of the land who happen to perform all these qualities. The Palestinians aren't just living of the soil, they are the soil. They are clinging to the land. When their civilisation on the ground is wiped out, they don't flee, they just go under. This resilience is seen by everyone around the world and it is more than likely that the Israelis can also grasp the level of determination performed by their enemies.

Israel was hoping to split the Palestinians and isolate the Hamas. Looking at the Israeli media, it is israel that is disintegrating into its elements. It is Benjamin Netanyahu who is isolated. The Palestinians, on the other hand, stay united despite their suffering.

Maybe, it is the Palestinians who are actually the Eternal Folk... some historians insist that it is them who are the true offspring of the early Israelites..

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These brilliant analyses from Gilad Atzmon can also be found at the THURSDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2023 entry in the XYMPHORA website here:  http://xymphora.blogspot.com/?zx=c1712eb09e461b5f