Swine flu to infect over 400,000 Swedes: agency

[joeblow]

Swine flu to infect over 400,000 Swedes: agency

http://www.thelocal.se/20640/20090714/



More than 400,000 Swedes may be infected by the swine flu this autumn even if vaccination programmes get off to a quick start, according to a new forecast by the country's health authorities.

    * WHO declares swine flu pandemic: Sweden (11 Jun 09)
    * Two more Swedes infected by swine flu (1 Jun 09)
    * First swine flu case confirmed in Sweden (6 May 09)
    * Sweden concerned over 'useless' flu vaccine stockpiles (3 Mar 09)

In the worst case scenario, more than 5 million Swedes – more than 50 percent of the country's population – could be infected.

The figures come from a joint effort by the National Board of Health and Welfare (Socialstyrelsen) and the Institute for Infectious Disease Control (Smittskyddsinstitutet), which together carried out a simulation using data from Statistics Sweden in which Sweden's population is connected into one, large social network, the Dagens Nyheter newspaper (DN) reports.

The infectious diseases agency drew up four different scenarios by adjusting two main variables: the speed with which vaccination programmes are set in motion and how aggressively the disease spreads.

If vaccination starts quickly and the disease spreads slowly, more than 436,000 Swedes will be infected by the swine flu, according to the simulation.

If the disease spreads quickly, however, and the start of vaccinations are delayed, around 5 million Swedes will become infected.

During a normal flu season, 2 to 15 percent of the population (180,000 to 1.35 million people) become ill, depending on the type of virus.

Because the swine flu is completely new, 20 to 40 percent of the country can be infected if Swedes aren't vaccinated.

TT/The Local (mailto:news@thelocal.se">news@thelocal.se/08 656 6518)

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Your comments about this article:
#1
07:44 July 14, 2009 by futureishere
So the agency thinks that spread of a disease is dependent on only two variables? That's downright absurd!
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#2
10:22 July 14, 2009 by Celc
@futureishere - Stating things does not make them true. You have to actually make an attempt to explain why something is wrong to refute it.
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#3
12:52 July 14, 2009 by RoyceD
Yes I agree with Celc, sure using two main variables certainly does not tell the whole story of what could happen, it does however give a simple estimate of the size of the problem they are facing.

I do agree with futureishere in what I believe is the point of his post in that the news article itself is poor once again from TL. It is like they accidentally clicked submit half way through writing the article, and then just left it.

There is a difference in reporting news and being a journalist. I guess TL can't afford journalists.