Is the Circus Tent in Precious Metals About to Fold?

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

Prechter-EWI story here...

Part 1 of Peter Schiff versus Prechter interview -- a good listen:

http://fetch.noxsolutions.com/schiff/au ... 110810.mp3

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Is the Circus Tent in Precious Metals About to Fold?
PT Barnum vs. facts and evidence
By Robert Folsom
Tue, 09 Nov 2010 17:45:00 ET    Email |  Print  |  RSS Feeds Generated by Elliott Wave International RSS |  My Updates    
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I don't admire P.T. Barnum, creator of "The Greatest Show on Earth." And whether he said it or not, his alleged quote that "There's a sucker born every minute" may be the most cynical of all time.
 
But what's truly depressing is how each day brings fresh evidence that the circus masters and showmen really do understand the minds of most Americans better than anyone.
 
I say this because of last week's financial news spectacle, namely the Nov. 3 announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding its purchase of Treasury bonds. If you want to study a situation where "the reaction is more interesting than the event," this is it on a silver platter; Google News shows 6,444 related articles for Nov. 3-4.
 
Virtually all those stories offered some version of this claim: "The Federal Reserve moved to jolt the economy into recovery with a bold plan to pump $600 billion into the banking system."
 
I won't bother to spell out why the assumptions in this claim are childishly gullible. Allow me instead to briefly summarize a Wall Street Journal article I read more than nine years ago -- it came to mind during last week's much ado about noth... er, the Fed.
 
That WSJ story ran on October 25, 2001. The headline was "Puzzle in Japan: Despite Lowering Rates to Rock Bottom, Banks Lack Borrowers." Japan's Nikkei stock index had recently fallen below 10,000, its lowest level yet in what had been a 12-year decline from the 1989 all-time high near 39,000.
 
Collective psychology in Japan had gone from insatiable consumption to miserly penny-pinching. The WSJ article led with the example of one middle-class Japanese couple who saved money by sprinkling used bath water on their vegetable garden. By October 2001, Japan's central bank had long ago reduced interest rates virtually to zero.
 
If monetary policy is supposed to restore growth to an advanced industrial economy, why had prices and growth in Japan continued to fall for 12 years?
 
Wait, make that 21 years. Today the Nikkei is near 9,700, or roughly where it was in 2001.
 
This history is lost on most people, particularly on most U.S. investors -- mainly because the financial media sees to it that the show must go on: the Fed "moved," it will "jolt the economy," it has "a bold plan," it will "pump $600 billion," blah, blah, blah...
 
And, of course, every news story about every financial market on the planet last week said prices went up, down, or sideways because of "Fed easing." If it appears that last week's central bank announcement "caused" the gains in stocks and metals, remember this: Investors who look for a reason to buy (or to sell) usually find one. Psychology drives the news, not the other way around.
 
Had enough sideshow entertainment? Read analysis and forecasts which actually DO take history into account -- and which puts the facts and evidence in context.
 
The November 8 Short Term Update said the gains in silver amount to "a full-fledged blow off," but also warned that "the reversal after the end of blow offs is usually as spectacular as the blow off move itself." Spot prices in silver this afternoon fell four percent -- is the circus tent in silver about to fold?
 
Today's special Tuesday edition of Short Term Update answers that question head-on. Read it for yourself within minutes. Follow this link to begin.

[Wimpy]

The November 8 Short Term Update said the gains in silver amount to "a full-fledged blow off," but also warned that "the reversal after the end of blow offs is usually as spectacular as the blow off move itself." Spot prices in silver this afternoon fell four percent -- is the circus tent in silver about to fold?

Today's special Tuesday edition of Short Term Update answers that question head-on. Read it for yourself within minutes. Follow this link to begin.

CSR, was there a link?

[mchawe]

Hey guys. Gold/Silver is in a bull market. Volatility in Silver especially has always been thus. Look at the charts. The bull market is still intact. Just ride the bull !
If you don't have gold or silver, the dips (like now) are the place to buy ! If you chase price you commit financial suicide. The public are not in the market. When the public enters these markets, that is the time to get out. There has been no change in the fundamentals.

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

The link is from http://www.elliottwave.com. The article is buried in there somewhere.  Prechter is saying the Bond market is about to fall apart which will be likely "Deflationary" in the coming years. He's a different point of view.  My perspective actually leans towards the  Deflationary camp, and I haven't been in this latest run up because of it.  I just know the mostly Jew-Scam "Debt" overhang Globally is a lot bigger for governments and people in the bigger scheme of things--- bigger than the companies that make the "markets" -- a bond default or a couple of bank failures could ruin a rally pretty damn quick at this point -- even though Jew Bernanke and Jew stooge Geithner have pretty much patched up the most recent Jew Scams with their Jew puppet Obama.

Overall, a person could do a lot worse than holding Gold or Silver. I do think though the Jew Hedge Funds and the Goy' "Wannabe a Big Money Jew" types, are pushing up the precious metals based on "news" at this point. I would be wary of sinking a lot into most markets at this point -- but I'm not the guy to ask about market timing.  I just know the Bankrupt USS "J.E.W.'D America-J.E.W.'D Economy" is sinking and will bring down a lot of good people inside of it.  Bonds are the biggest iceberg out there right now -- no matter how many bails of Burning Dollars the Bankrupt Jew Fed dumps on them -- to crack them...


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The Next Major Disaster Developing for Bond Holders — A Free Report from Robert Prechter
"A fifth consecutive major disaster is developing for investors," Bob Prechter says in his new must-read report for bond holders. "History shows that investors have been attracted like moths to a flame to four consecutive pyres: the NASDAQ in 2000, real estate in 2006, the blue chips in 2007 and commodities in 2008. Now they are flitting across the veranda to a mesmerizing blue flame." His message to bond holders today: Don't be one of the investors holding "certificates of guaranteed self-destruction" when all is said and done.

[abduLMaria]

there are a lot of speculators in the silver market currently.

last week, the CFTC raised margin requirements for silver options a small amount, from $5000 to $6500, to control one share of 5000 ounces of silver on COMEX (5000 ounces would be worth about $130K in US$).

at the time silver was at $29+.

that one change caused one of the biggest one day drops in the history of the market - from $29+ to about $27 - about 7%.

with a small change like that causing such an abrupt price drop, one can only imagine what a major change would cause (e.g. US interest rate increase).


then this week the CFTC increased margin requirements again, from $6500 to $7250 for silver, and now also for gold (from $4250 to $4000, for a 100 ounce futures contract).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-ra ... under-week

[mchawe]

The problem with Elliot Wave I find, is that it works great after the event, but is not much good as a predictive tool. Here is one soothsayer
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15934.html.
His subscribers would not have been too happy with him !
Siver is an extremely volatile market at the best of times, which is why it is so popular with traders or gamblers. A 7% drop is nothing. I don't still have the daily charts going that far back, but the April 2004 Monthly chart shows a high of $8.43 and a low of $5.52. That is a difference of 34.5% !
I have seen this kind of price action in the precious metals markets over and over again. The weak hands bail out and the market at some point turns around leaving them all behind. These are the times to scale in one's buying ! Always buy in terror and sell on euphoria !
There is no way we have seen the final top in gold or silver. Ask around your friends who actually has the stuff in their possession. Hardly any ! When the public really start piling in, that will be the time to get out. But that time is not now !

[Panoptimist]

So how much dough do I need to put towards bullion to be doing anything worthwhile?

My fundamental problem with the precious metals market is, once the economy tanks, inflation is through the roof and people have no money to spend on shit like a gallon of milk and a thousand dollar bill buys you a GMO pork rib, WHO IN THE FUCK IS GOING TO BUY IT? The Red Shields?

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

The problem with Elliot Wave I find, is that it works great after the event, but is not much good as a predictive tool. Here is one soothsayer
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15934.html.
His subscribers would not have been too happy with him !
Siver is an extremely volatile market at the best of times, which is why it is so popular with traders or gamblers. A 7% drop is nothing. I don't still have the daily charts going that far back, but the April 2004 Monthly chart shows a high of $8.43 and a low of $5.52. That is a difference of 34.5% !
I have seen this kind of price action in the precious metals markets over and over again. The weak hands bail out and the market at some point turns around leaving them all behind. These are the times to scale in one's buying ! Always buy in terror and sell on euphoria !
There is no way we have seen the final top in gold or silver. Ask around your friends who actually has the stuff in their possession. Hardly any ! When the public really start piling in, that will be the time to get out. But that time is not now !

No doubt that's true mchawe... but you got to think about "investing" as opposed to say "survival-keeping the system together-preventing SHTF".  

Depending on who you follow with the precious metals, those are two very different propositions to look at before turning hard to get wage earned "paper earnings" into physical P.M. ounces at a certain price.
 For most of the Jew-Street-Talmudic HedgeFunds-Scammers it is not wage-earned paper they play with ( unlike most of us here at TIU) but it is bank paper created from relatively nothing.  

A lot of people get these confused and treat the "savings in gold" as equals but I don't see it that way.

This typical Lawyering Scamming Financial Talmudic explains the Second Lien problem (as per ZioDenniger) -- the big boys are Bankrupt Jew'd... if you have P.M.'s for investments just be prepared for "Deflationary Waves" in terms of paper and sounds of "TONK" as the USS JEW'D America takes on more water... they are all trying to use "Ireland","Iceland", and "Greece" as "Big Buckets" with HFT JewBorg Supercomputers in the FX, Bond Markets right now... :

Keep an eye open and gun loaded... and keep and Gold and Silver for only SHTF... and not for "run-ups"...IMHO...   :think: --CSR

[youtube:1q219p59]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjTZOekaQlE[/youtube]1q219p59]

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More from ZioDenniger at Market-Ticker.org... the problem is essentially Talmudic-Jewry at the core but for some reason... ZioDenniger thinks it can be all patched up and "made good" with another layer of Jew "B.S. Rabbi Dust"  slopped on the Usurious Jew-Babylonian Rip-off "Madoff" Temples in select major cities:

Chris Whalen: Liquidate Or Die
 

That's basically his view, and it matches mine:

The Obama Administration needs to change direction and to embrace restructuring and national renewal instead of the current policy of extend and pretend. The same factors that drove Ambac into bankruptcy are working on Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorganChase and will eventually force a restructuring. The sooner we start the process, the sooner the U.S. economy will recover.

    Indeed, I expect that the Obama Administration will eventually, reluctantly be forced to invoke the powers under the Dodd-Frank law and restructure the top-three U.S. banks. This will be near-total losses for equity holders and haircuts for creditors, but the end result will be a solvent bank that is smaller, profitable and able to again lend.

    It is important for Americans to remember that bankruptcy and liquidation are necessary steps to national renewal and economic stability. The Founders of the United States embedded bankruptcy in the U.S. Constitution for precisely this reason. The Founders knew that prolonged uncertainty and a lack of finality when it comes to insolvency was bad for society, thus they commanded Congress to create federal bankruptcy courts.

Exactly.

As I pointed out in my long missive on Bernanke's idiocy spouted over in Germany, the reason we have not been able to truly exit this economic mess and get employment going again has nothing to do with monetary or fiscal policy.

It has to do with the fact that we're hiding insolvent institutions and by doing so we're literally allowing the vampires to drink ever-larger quantities of our production just to keep their heads above water.

This is a path that cannot succeed.  The blood available in the economy to sustain itself is finite, and below a certain quantity you get a systemic collapse.  Siphoning off ever-larger quantities in a puerile attempt to protect those who willfully and intentionally destroyed the productive base of our nation is pure insanity.

Yet it is the path that our so-called "leaders" have adopted.

This must change before the available economic output drops below the necessary level to maintain essential services.  If our policy makers do not change course the best outcome is a decade like the 1930s.

The worst is systemic collapse.

[Panoptimist]

Why would precious metals be worth anything when SHTF?

Trade in a chunk of gold and get a paper sack full of 1,000 dollar bills in an economy where 1,000 dollars will buy you a box of Fig Newtons?

[CrackSmokeRepublican]

Kind of surprised to see this one but fits with Prechter and it getting ice "Frigid" rather than "Hot"... Ellen Brown kind of gives the Jew Fed a "pass" here which she shouldn't...IMHO.  QE2 is still a massive Jew Scam any way you look at it except the Jew debts are shifted onto the US taxpayer surreptiously...as the  American People (Goyim) is at the end of the "Scam" the only creative "asset" of last resort... where do the Jew Fed's "Assets" actually come from? Answer: The Goyim Taxpayer. What if Bonds get defaulted in the next few months and not just "bought"? Who pays International Jewry as the "Bond Vigilantes"?  Answer: It's the Goyim Taxpayer.

Keep an eye open and gun loaded...another financial rollercoaster ride is beginning...  --CSR  :

WHAT'S REALLY BEHIND QE2?

Ellen Brown, November 19th, 2010

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/qe2.php

[Wimpy]

I read her article and agree with you.  I was actually quite appalled and found myself muttering something at the computer screen; something like dumb c**t.  After all, it's interest free!!  Dumb ****!