Greek default forecasted for Tuesday Sep 20, 2011

Started by rmstock, September 19, 2011, 01:48:42 PM

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September 19, 2011, 01:48:42 PM Last Edit: October 16, 2013, 03:52:09 PM by rmstock
Greek default forecasted for Tuesday Sep 20, 2011

Important forecasters, known for their deadly serious trackrecords,
anticipate that a Greek Default is probably happening tomorrow, Tuesday
Sep 20, 2011 :

  •     "European stocks sink on Greece debt fears
         Merkel's party in Germany loses another regional election
         Sept. 19, 2011, 10:26 a.m. EDT · CORRECTED
         http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-stocks-tumble-led-by-rbs-and-socgen-2011-09-19?pagenumber=1
         
         By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
         
         Editor's Note: An earlier version of this story misspelled
         Societe Generale. The story has been corrected.
         
         MADRID (MarketWatch) — European stock markets fell sharply on
         Monday, with banks like Societe Generale SA sinking on concerns
         Greece could default on its debt ahead of crisis talks aimed at
         determining whether the embattled nation gets the next round of
         much-needed aid.
         
         The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP -2.36% extended earlier
         losses as Wall Street opened sharply lower. The index fell 2.5%
         to 224.44 after gaining 2.5% last week amid optimism going into
         the EU finance ministers' meeting in Poland.
         Click to Play
         Financial crisis tops agenda
         
         U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner met with euro-zone
         finance ministers to discuss ways to prevent Europe's debt
         crisis from further hurting the global economy. TWSJ's Charles
         Forelle reports from Wroclaw, Poland. Image courtesy of
         Associated Press.
         
         The French CAC 40 index FR:PX1 -2.95%  slid 3.5% to 2,925.70 and
         the German DAX 30 index DX:DAX -3.24%  lost 3.7% to 5,370.29.
         
         "There seems be a rumor Greece could default tomorrow," said
         Manoj Ladwa, senior trader at ETX Capital. "I treat these rumors
         with caution, but that seems to be pushing markets lower."
         
         Euro-zone finance ministers on Friday delayed a decision on
         releasing Greece's next aid tranche until October.
         
         A conference call with Greece's finance minister and inspectors
         from the European Union, European Central Bank and International
         Monetary Fund is due to take place Monday to judge whether the
         country has done enough to get the next aid installment. Read
         Greece preps for crisis talks to head off default
         
         The Greek cabinet met Sunday to find ways to reduce the nation's
         budget deficit. The Athens General Index GR:GD -1.70%  fell
         2.4%, with Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA down 5.2%.
         
         Ladwa said Italian and Spanish bond yields were rising sharply.
         "If Greece continues to be the focus of attention, we could see
         yields creeping up quite sharply," he said. "The markets got
         ahead of themselves last week expecting something fantastic, and
         as usual nothing was announced."
         
         Meanwhile, the party of German Chancellor Angela Merkel on
         Sunday suffered another regional election loss, this time in
         Berlin.
         
         "To add further to the already complex situation, Merkel's
         ruling coalition continues to see its mandate eroded with
         further signs of voter dissatisfaction coming through over the
         weekend, and without the support of Germany's government, it's
         difficult to see a way out of the quagmire for Athens," said
         Cameron Peacock, market analyst at IG Markets, in a note.
         Banks hurt across Continent
         
         Bank shares sank across Europe, with Societe Generale FR:GLE
         -5.70%  down 5.3% and BNP Paribas FR:BNP -5.99%  off 5%.
         
         Also in Paris, shares of tire maker Michelin FR:ML -5.87%  lost
         6% after Morgan Stanley cut the shares to underweight from
         overweight. Analysts said Michelin faces "higher-than-expected
         risks to earnings from truck markets."
         
         In Germany, Commerzbank AG DE:CBK -4.34%  fell 3.3% and Deutsche
         Bank AG DE:DBK -4.85%   DB -6.35%  dropped 2.8%. Auto maker
         Volkswagen AG DE:VOW3 -3.91%  tumbled 4%, leading a selloff in
         auto makers, with BMW AG DE:BMW -3.00%  down 2.7%. Shares of
         Peugeot SA FR:UG -3.85%  slid 3.8%.
         
         Shares of German utility E.On AG DE:EOAN -5.07%  sank 5%, giving
         back some of the gains it made on Friday after an upgrade by
         J.P. Morgan Cazenove to overweight from neutral. In the same
         sector, shares of RWE AG DE:RWE -4.29%  dropped 4.5%.
         
         Banks weighed on the London market as well, with Lloyds Banking
         Group PLC LYG -8.08%   UK:LLOY -6.91%  tumbling 6.5%. Lloyds
         said Monday that Tim Tookey, group finance director and a board
         member, would leave at the end of February to pursue a post
         outside banking.
         
         Among other U.K. banks, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC RBS
         -8.11%   UK:RBS -6.31%  and Barclays PLC UK:BARC -6.52%   BCS
         -7.50%  each fell more than 6%. Shares of HSBC Holdings PLC HBC
         -4.11%   UK:HSBA -2.78%  fell 2.6%.
         
         The FTSE 100 index UK:UKX -2.04%  slid 2.4% to 5,239.57.
         
         Mining shares dropped with metals futures, as copper prices
         posted particularly steep losses. Chilean copper miner
         Antofagasta PLC UK:ANTO -6.92%  sank 7.3% and Xstrata PLC UK:XTA
         -6.32%  dropped 6.1%, while Anglo American PLC UK:AAL -4.28% 
         fell 4%.
         
         In Italy, shares of Finmeccanica SpA IT:FNC -8.02%  dropped 9%,
         leading losses for the Stoxx 600, as the company said it plans
         to cut around 1,200 jobs at its Alenia aeronautics business,
         according to Dow Jones Newswires. The shares had been climbing
         in recent days.
         
         Shares of Spanish-based stainless steel producer Acerinox SA
         ES:ACX -7.11%  dropped 7% after Credit Suisse cut its rating on
         the firm to neutral from outperform.
         
         In Zurich, shares of Credit Suisse Group AG CS -7.62%  fell 4%.
         The bank said Monday it reached a €150 million ($204 million)
         settlement with the Düsseldorf public prosecutor's office that
         will resolve a tax probe.
         
         Barbara Kollmeyer is an editor for MarketWatch in Madrid."
ZeroHedge is likewise following this forecast where Wed Sep 21, 2011
is mentioned as the date where important CDS's will have expired :

  •     "Is September 20 Greek Default Day?
         Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/17/2011 14:52 -0400
         http://www.zerohedge.com/news/september-20-greek-default-day

         From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
         
         Is September 20 Greek Default Day?
         
         If Greece is going to default, September 20th seems to be as
         good a day as any. Actually, it is far better than most to be
         GD-Day.
         
         Two big bonds, the 4.5% of 2037 and the 4.6% of 2040 both have
         coupon payments due that day, totalling 769 Million Euro.  So if
         the IMF wanted to avoid letting another billion euro go down the
         drain, September 20th would be a good day to do it.  The IMF
         seems to have delayed approving another tranche for now, so
         Greece must already have the money for this payment?
         
         The Fed Scheduled their meeting for 2 days.  It now starts on
         September 20th.  Maybe a co-incidence, but what better way to be
         prepared for new emergency policies?
         
         CDS "rolls" on the 20th.  On the 21st, all Sept 2011 CDS will
         have expired.  My guess is that banks own more protection than
         they sold to the September 20th date, so defaulting while those
         contracts are still valid would be a net benefit to the banking
         system.  As a whole, triggering CDS will likely benefit banks as
         I can find banks that say they own protection against positions,
         but find more hedge funds are uninvolved or have sold protection
         to fund shorts in other sovereigns.
         
         We just finished the big finance minister meeting.  They can all
         return home, brief their staff and be prepared for Tuesday. 
         Prior to D-Day there were lots of last minute preparations to
         make sure everyone was on the same page and as prepared as
         possible.  Why not before GD-Day?
         
         Papandreou cancelled a trip to the U.S. And Venizelos mentioned
         that Papandreou had to be in Athens for "Initiatives".  If you
         ever wanted some hand holding from your leader, it would be at a
         time of default.  He would have to be in country to calm things
         and mention all the deals he put in place last week on the
         conference call.
         
         None of the headlines from Poland or comments from the IMF seem
         particularly positive.  I can't even find the customary all is
         good, we are working together, this was a time of great
         progress, boiler plate statement having been released.  Maybe
         they are waiting for Monday to let the world in on all the
         joyous progress.  I suspect they are more likely to wait on bad
         news than good news.  They have often tried to control bad news
         over the weekend.  Maybe they have decided it would be better to
         deal with it real time.
         
         There is still a chance we see some bold new initiative or plan,
         but as I wrote last week, every step and virtually every comment
         made, for the past 8 days, is consistent with preparing for a
         default."
Best Regards,

Robert
PS.--
Robert M. Stockmann - RHCE
Network Engineer - UNIX/Linux Specialist
crashrecovery.org  stock@stokkie.net

``I hope that the fair, and, I may say certain prospects of success will not induce us to relax.''
-- Lieutenant General George Washington, commander-in-chief to
   Major General Israel Putnam,
   Head-Quarters, Valley Forge, 5 May, 1778
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